10/10 - Market Analysis

SPX
- great candle...might be the end of the fall...monday will tell
- volume and intraday swings are the most bullish signals



NDX
- ended slightly higher which is amazing
- volume super as in SPX
- candle not as nice as SPX..doesn't look like a reversal candle


NDX month
- the support we've been targeting has been hit and not breached...it held and bounced
- risk /reward for traders of the monthly chart should be feeling bullish


GLD
- gold fell hard...
- as an indicator of fear (better than vix), i say this can be a topping of fear and a changing of sentiment from bearish to buying...


My 2 Cents: too much talk about bottoms..i hate it...too much noise...having heard bottom rumors since the start of this whole stock market meltdown from last year, i am just too sick and too tired to hear more...the theories of capitulation are that when everyone is talking about it and when ppl are too scared that it is a bottom...that has happened so many times so far but so far none of these times have marked bottoms...technically we are still in a downtrend and until that one important signal of lower highs and lower lows is broken with a higher high or higher low in atleast a 30" chart, i am not going to be jumping on the capitulation bandwagon with money...but i do have to say that from an intraday technical basis, today was great as it gave one of those beautiful high volume, end of trend candles bulls have been waiting for...with news from the G7 or G8 coming out later this weekend and a bank holiday on monday, things can get very volatile on monday..heard traders on Tv talking about a possible huge gap monday morning, followed by a 1000 pt advance in the dow and i doubt it...even if for some slim chance the individual buyers can make this happen without the help of institutional buying i doubt that buying at today's close is justified...intraday on monday will give good chances to buy even if it is a huge day up...and by the close on monday, we will know for sure if we are going to have a fullblown rally or not...right now, technically, all buyers are still just "bottom pickers"...BUT i do have to say that ever since this whole mess started, today marks the day of the best chance for a nearterm bottom..and if we close with any sort of gain on monday (as long as it ain't a very bearish candle) i am putting money in calls...and as others speculate, when this rally starts, it will be unprecedented as things have emotionally been oversold...its a bear bubble....