Tuesday, October 7, 2008

SL: Even the "Best" Falter

So how tough is this market really? Definitely common and amateur traders are feeling the big hurt...but what about the big guys? What about people who have been able to predict the big crashes of the past decade and made big bucks on the commodities run up?

turns out they aren't doing so well either..maybe doing even worse than you actually...here is the legendary KEN HEEBNER's CGM focus fund (CGMFX)...it has commercials and everything...but as u can see, it has done terribly lately. he made money on the housing bubble, the tech bubble, and the commodity rally...but it seems as though the bursting of the latest commodity bubble caught him by surprise and took his fund straight south...i marked the specific release date of a fortune magazine article on Heebner entitled "America's Hottest Investor"...read it...turns out to be a "sell on the news" kind of things...haha...he's a legend so i am sure he will bounce back...but this definitely just shows how tough the market has been for everybody


And who hasn't heard that september was the worst month for hedge funds ever? everyone knows it...but has been a real chart of it? here is a screen print of the latest one on bloomberg...click on this link to get to the hedge fund index page...it should update every few days so u can track how well your portfolio is doing vs the "very best"



Bottom Line: its tough..no doubt about it...but thats still no reason for not making money now...these guys are supposedly the best...and they sucked...technically they shouldn't have messed up so bad...they got greedy or became overconfident...they missed out on shorting commodities on the way down and instead, they held their positions like every other poor amateur trader...small losses, big gains...they missed the first law of trading...encouraging to know that we can beat the big boys...the best will get pissed, learn from their mistakes, recover and come back stronger than before...the weaklings see the challenges, get discouraged, and give up...Let's see how Ken handles it...

No comments: