Thursday, October 30, 2008

10/30 - Market Analysis

SPX
- at resistance...another consolidation day
- small range...


NDX
- at resistance...similar to most charts i see as the runup brings it right to the 20MA...
- this chart also has strong price history which is a good reason for resistance


RKH
- as with financials, it was a laggard today
- GS very weak all day and we got another inside day and fell from resistance yet again


USO
- resistance here not so strong...
- but USO falling as SPX is a bearish divergence
- as i mentioned, USO needs to rally with SPX for it to be real. in the morning as USO fell to session lows, it brought down stocks soon later...i feel it does this on the daily chart as well


VIX
- in between support and resistance
- i don't know if it can close above resistance though, so this might be a sign that a pullback might be very small if we get one in stocks


A/D
- pretty bullish looking numbers...more so than it felt like...looks better than today's candle
- only bearish sign is the up volume on the NYSE...but it seems to be the least important indicator of the whole chart...
- hmm...maybe we can keep rising without a pullback...


Analysis: I still believe we will get a pullback...i am guessing tomororw as resistance is holding and we are at a 20MA on a majority of the charts i was looking at today in individual stocks as well as ETFs and indexes...today seemed like a good day to take profits as it was unable to make new highs today in the index charts..seems like the bulls will be taking a breathers as technicals have a bad risk / reward now at these levels...

Sectors:
best - fxi, eem, tan, kol, oih, mdy, iwm
worst - ung, uga, uso, gld, dba, uup, (slv, rkh, xme)

with commodities amongst the worst as well as financials, don't know how strong today's rally really is...but the strong guys have been very strong...mostly because of asian markets rallying huge overnight...but these charts are very overextended and at good MA resistance...double inverse FXI, FXP, shows just how good a time it is to go short the asian market...

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