10/22 - Market Analysis

Disclaimer: u know those times when u feel in the zone with charts...i felt that when i was doing these charts...hopefully its a sign that they are worth trusting...

SPX
- an intraday triangle breakdown, but not closing price
- more important to note is the volume and price...definitely not a breakdown yet when looking at that
- oh yah..i find that triangles are some of the least reliable patterns when made in such a short time frame

SPY 30"
- this highlights clearly what really happened today...the daily chart does not give the action at the EOD enough credit
- on this chart, the triangle pattern looks very beautiful...
- i'm a little confused with the significance of the late day retest of the breakdown on huge volume...



NDX
- surprise! its not the laggard today...i think thats all cause of the 4 horsemen
- during the day, when the market was very down, i glanced at my watch list and the only 4 advancing stocks were the horsemen...weird...leaders for if we rally? hmm...
- nice retest of the low close....volume i think is a very good bullish indicator

RKH
- broke down from the strong support...bearish
- at the bull flag's ideal pivot point...somewhat bullish hope
- better to short than go long...

USO
- don't dare start getting bullish about the market for more than a day or two unless this chart begins to break out of the channel..i would short any rally until we get a breakout...
- hints to more bearishness to stocks with no end in sight...


VIX
- impressed by how strong it has been
- still think the uptrend is broken though...tomorrow if it rallies, i might need to take this statement back...



A/D
- yup...confirmed that today is a true broad market selloff

Analysis: basically, i am getting mixed messages about the market...i would feel safe holding an index short but wouldn't feel safe enough to short a basket of stocks nor leave a long leash on the stops...i think the breakdown today in some charts is to be taken moderately serious...as we are in a bear market, its good to feel confident about the bearishness, but as we do have strong support left in some charts, it would be unwise to bet the farm going bear...

Sector:
best - uup, hhh, ung, qqqq, xlv, dba
worst - gdx, xme, kol, oih, tan, fxi

definitely it was the strongest rallied stocks from this very shortterm rally that got battered the most today...makes sense and confirms the retest of lows hypothesis...notice how its weird how DBA and UNG were the strongest of the weaklings today...thats divergence between the stocks and the commodities themselves....tech strong is also worth noting...