Monday, October 6, 2008

10/6 - Market Analysis

News
- global selloff on concern of global slowdown especially in europe
- G8 might do an emergency rate cut to help the world market

Bullish
- closed well off lows
- volume not super huge
- orderly day...no panic selling

Bearish
- indexes closed at multiyear lows
- dow closed under the 10000 psychological barrier
- widespread selloff...every 30 dow stock down

SPX
- closed at measured move
- increasing volume
- no support
- last hour ended strong


NDX
- ended at the trendline...
- some big caps actually closed positive after huge rally at EOD
- broke the 3 yr old support


XLF
- made a doji
- very near the 52 week lows
- regional banks performed poorly today


UUP
- broke resistance on decent volume
- highest close in over a year...


A/D
- overwhelmingly bearish here
- new lows in NYSE is amazing...slaughter


Analysis: capitulation can be said but we need confirmation tomorrow...i think theres a good chance that today's lows will mark the lows for the next couple months..but as they are about 4-500 points lower than the close today on the DJIA, its still not very comforting...i see 2 scenarios playing out...either we close higher tomorrow to mark today's close as the lowest pt for the near future...or we fall tomorrow and retest today's lows soon before a possible bottom can be called. i won't be surprised either way and believe shorts should be held with tight stops...thats it...no new trades look good yet...

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