Thursday, October 16, 2008

10/15 - Market Analysis

SPX
- at good support???
- light volume selloff


NDX
- slightly worse than SPX
- similar to MDY, IWM, and the majority of stocks i am watching


RKH
- good indicator that we can resume a rally if this support level holds


USO
- at support but the way it keep slicing through supports, i don't trust it yet
- needs to rise to give trader's confidence


VIX
- at good resistance...
- watch it to hold, or else bears will drive the market to the ground


A/D
- to see just how weak the markets are, look at the volumes
- 3% up volume for Nasdaq? capitulation?? unbelievable honestly...


Analysis
- as a wealthy trader, i took 70% profit on my QQQQ puts and am waiting for a reason to sell the rest of my position tomorrow...
- am also looking for a nice bullish reversal candle tomorrow so that i can enter some long positions
- right now though, i am bearishly biased with a very tight stop as i do beelive that last week's reversal candle and monday's rally is legit...but as we are in a bear market, i stay patient and cautious.

Sectors

best - gld, uup (only 2 ETFs were positive)
worst - oih, xme, eem, kol, fxi ( each fell 15-18%)
analysis - they keep selling the same sectors...data pointing to monday as a deadcat bounce than a reversal...notice how gld keeps leading...but also note that it isn't rising huge meaning that maybe sellers aren't nearly as scared as the selloff is telling us.

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