10/27 - Market Analysis

SPX
- yup...keep holding those shorts
- late day selloff killed all hopes of a rebound



NDX
- need to break that resistance to move anywhere higher


XLF
- one of the stronger sectors
- earlier in the day, it was XLF and RKH leading therefore i thought we might get the first of reversal days but that all changed with the EOD selloff
- watch levels for possible support


USO
- just like the markets, it closed right at its lows...
- very pitiful but great for any shorts that were brave enough to hold throughout all this bottom picking speculation...


VIX
- vix has good support below now...sky is the limit from here


A/D
- for the most part confirms today's weak close
- but again we have bullish volume divergence in the NYSE...not enough to go long from this but enough to think there might be a (slight) chance of a rally soon


Analysis: very boring day...and i really didn't know what to make of the action intraday...luckily, i decided lately to just exclusively do my daily analysis based on daily charts (without the distraction of news and contrarian thinking, etc ) and that has definitely made it much simpler when evalutating the market...overall, its clear, we are falling and still falling...nothing tells me that now is the time to buy...nothing says that its the time to cover shorts...everything points to bearishness...until the daily charts change, there is no reason why this trend follower will change views...

Sectors:

best - dba, gld, uup, (smh, xrt, slv, xlf)
worst - tan, fxi, kol, xme, xlb

sectors making sense...most bullish thing is that xlf was able to stay relatively safe throughout the day...it ended the day down 1.7% which is definitely not bad as SPY fell 3.73%. watch it for relative strength as they need to lead the next rally if we ever get one...until then, keep shorting what works...i saw some energy stocks making breakdowns of their descending triangles...