SL - but One

Every Stock Mutual Fund has lost money in 2008, except One

http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/11/every_stock_mut.html

R.C. Market Report 11.28

• Monday's Forecast: Ride Til It Stops

• Low volume half day but we are up again for the fifth time in a row now. Best weekly gain since 1933 according to CNBC.

• Monday: People may be hesitant to enter at these levels but current holders don't seem anxious to sell either. With buying into the holiday on Wednesday and into the weekend today, rally can very well continue on Monday. I'll stick with the trend until it stops out, and I'll keep my eyes on the 50day moving average.

11/26 - Market Analysis

SPX
- much reason to think that the nearterm top is now...
- also very very bullish to see SPX break above resistance and hold


SPY 30"
- inverse head and shoulders is what we got, not a 2x top confirmation...
- volume is light that suggests we might get to test the breakout level before a push up...
- overall though, no reason for any trend follower to feel bearish looking at this chart


XLF
- still got slightly more room to rise...friday might get right to the resistance


USO
- very huge volume on a very signifiant breakout...
- i declare the bottom in commodities!


VIX
- suggests more bullish action in the indexes to come...
- soon though, it will be right at a very strong support level..pullback for indexes?


A/D
- very bullish data...no divergence at all



Analysis: i've been stupid to be marking tops on this uptrend especially since i am a self professed trend follower (not trend resister). Right now, we have a slew of signals saying that a pullback is coming very soon and imminent, but honestly, it would be best just to hold all longs, have a long bias and get stopped out when this supposed pullback occurs...so right now, despite being pretty late to the party, am bullish...but without any positions...friday will be hard to call as the light volume..i would think that we have one last push up on very very light volume, then monday the volume gets slightly bigger and starts the pullback i've been looking for...

ETFs:
best - xme, fxi, kol, xhb, oih
worst - gld, pph, xlu, slv, (dba, uup, gdx)

- can't say much except that it shows how commodities seem to like the push up in oil...going forward, energy looks to be the best place to go long...i wonder if gold will start to fall now as defensive names such as consumer staples and pharma are the laggards

R.C. Market Report 11.26

• Friday's Forecast: Slow Half Day

• Another day of very bullish price action on declining volume. Aside from gap down at opening, it amazed me to see no profit taking. Market sentiment seems to be changing with hope starting to creep in. A lot of traders that are skeptical may be more inclined to take interest in this rally now. With low volume trading, I believe this rally will be tested within the next couple of weeks. But I like the chance of us not returning down to the low of Nov. 20.

• Friday: Half day trading ending at 10am PT. Aside from some action in the morning, I don't think much will happen on this day. It may be setting up for action on Monday so I need to watch out for that.

11/25 - Market Analysis

SPX
- in the resistance zone on declining volume..bearish


SPY 30"
- might this be a 2x top forming? possible
- support and resistance is well defined


IWM
- u can see here just how similar and actually even more bearish the chart is in IWM


XLF
- still has room to move up...
- will this ETF need to hit resistance for it to start falling?


RKH
- in the resistance zone...
- bullish to have broken above slight resistance


USO
- didn't get he continuation move to truly breakout..
- if it resumes the down channel, it is almost certain that the indexes will decline as well...


VIX
- suggests that we have more upside possibilities...
- don't see much support until way lower..


CPC
- haven't looked at this in a while
- but judging from the numbers, its possible to have quite a slide


A/D
- overall a neutral day...not enough divergence to have any signals here


Analysis: Despite SPX closing slightly higher, indexes are still in their resistance zone..seeing how today is a doji on resistance, i am more bearish than yesterday...the declining volume is also very bearish...it is possible to move up maybe one more day but the charts are telling me that the decline might start tomorrow. i am positioned accordingly with a small position...and i believe this next leg down can make new lows...

ETFs:
best - xhb, xme, xlf, rkh, xlb
worst - uso, ung, uga, smh, slv, eem

- bullish to see financials on top yet again...but pretty bad how all energy commodities are showing bearish divergence...

R.C. Market Report 11.25

• Tomorrow's Forecast: Go Home Happy

• We've managed to stay slightly above the important resistance/support level. It was an impressive hold of gains from past two days. However, volume was even lower than yesterday's. Low volume is still a cause for concern.

• Tomorrow: Historically, the day before Thanksgiving is bullish. So it's possible that we stretch this out to 4 straight up days. But with big buyers still on the sidelines, will people take profit heading into the holiday? I'd expect profit taking to occur at some point in the day and the magnitude of that decline could be a clue as to whether we've turned around the corner or not.

11/24 - Market Analysis

SPX
- chart suggest we are just retesting the breakdown


SPY 30"
- highs at a decent resistance level on the 30"
- support is quite far away for even for a pullback, a few bucks can be made


XLF
- looks to be able to get one or 2 more days tacked onto this recovery rally


USO
- strength but needs continuation to be strong enough for a clear sign of bullishness


VIX
- looks to want to drop back down to 45...
- this can happen in 1 of 2 ways...either consolidation boredom for a week or a continued rally


A/D
- clear bullish day
- not 90%+ advance to decline though...pisani pointed this out...i wonder if it shows that the markets not as strong as they seem...not strong enough evidence to trade off of...


Analysis: many reasons to short this market at the EOD...seems to be just as many reasons to believe this rally will continue...but in the end, there aren't enough hints to short nor add to longs...best to wait until the market makes it clear that this quick strong spike in the markets is over...as i don't feel that the obama news nor C news is enough to cause any real reversal in the markets, i am favoring that we will make new lows after this is done...volume is lighter which is kind of bearish concidering how today was a pretty newsworthy day...i remain sidelined and on high caution for the next sign of breakdown

ETFs:
best - tan, xlf, rkh, xhb, xme, kol
worst - uup pph (xlu, gld, iyk, fxi)

- most sectors able to close near their highs (GDX is an exception)...bullish to see xlf and rkh lead the pack for a change...but as it was on news, it was very expected...not too bullish as it wasn't pure buying because they are good buy though...overall we can see that safety plays lagged and the deeply oversold did the best...not much to criticize here...to show true strength in the rally though, i would really like to see financials lead without any news...

R.C. Market Report 11.24

• Tomorrow's Forecast: 1, 2, 3?

• We are now at the prior resistance level. Price action was very bullish. However, we had a decline in volume that leaves this rally susceptible to a fall. Final ten minutes showcased a real battle between the forces that wanted to sell into the rally versus the forces that believed in this rally. I'd conclude that the battle ended in a tie for today.

• Tomorrow: Can we make it three up days in a row? If we do, it'll be the first since mid September. Price action seems to indicate that it's doable. Volume leaves me with doubts. Financials led, oil rose, dollar declined, and Vix dropped, all indicating possibility of a sustainable rally.

11/21 - Market Analysis

SPX
- volume pretty good
- today's candle needs a continuation day of advance
- resistance above is a good target


SPY 30"
- loved where it closed
- right after the intraday resistance was broken, that was then the bulls stepped in and drove prices in a vertical incline


DJIA
- more bullish looking when looking at this chart
- maybe this rally can last...


XLF
- lots of room to get a nice pullback before strong resistance comes into play
- overall though, any rally will just be a failed bearmarket rally


USO
- this tells the true unfiltered story of the economy
- until we get a breakout of this channel, no reason to belive any rally


VIX
- 80 turned out to be good resistance...
- now it might just resume its hike higher


A/D
- numbers are definitely not as bullish as the index's suggest
- bearish divergence all around...these numbers reflect a 100pt up day...
not 500

Analysis: when i heard that geitner was the reason for the rally, i couldn't help but laugh...how stupid is it to think that geitner's appointment would do this...to me, its all technical...its options ex with a strongly oversold 30min chart that made for the rally...anyway..it hit the spot i was thinking would hold up if we had any sort of rally at all...going forward though, most signs point to friday as bullshit and we will trend lower. but, i will be looking at some key charts to see when is a time to go bullish...right now, i am liking the downside a lot...great risk/ reward to go lower than higher...

ETFs:
best - gdx, fxi, xme, eem, kol, xle
worst - dba, uup (rkh, xhb, xlb, xli, xlf)

- haha...financials on the bottom and gold at the top? definitely doesn't suggest strength in the market...great time to reload short tomorrow morning...no trend can last with these laggards...btw...fucking gold...how the hell did it go up so high so fast? no idea whats going on there...safety play? silver did the same...great place to go long going forward i guess...

R.C. Market Report 11.21

• Monday's Forecast: Seeking Volume

• A rally of decent magnitude at some point of the day was expected, mainly because today is options expiration day. But the catalyst of the rally, newsbreak about the newly appointed Treasury, is rather important. Considering the impact that Paulson had on the market, appointment of a new Treasury is big news. Technically, the monthly chart support still holds.

• Monday: The late rally will be challenged by major resistance level that's not too far away now. It remains to be seen whether large buying volume will show up because without increasing volume, this rally can easily fail like the other ones. So I'll be watching for volume once price gets near resistance.

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*even if u don't buy the whole propaganda (like me), still worthy of viewing...amazing and very professional

11/20 - Market Analysis

SPX
- just keeps falling
- had a nice pullback intrday on light volume that eventually failed
- selling doesn't seem over yet...


SPY 30"
- downtrend very much intact until my stop gets breached....
- pullback likely


DIA
- huge huge volume as it broke down on its support
- last of the indexes to breakdown
- target is well below these levels


USO
- if this is the end of it, we haven't seen it yet in USO or any other charts....


VIX
- possible 2x top with bearish divergence...
- not tradable top as today's candle was bullish, not bearish
- might hint for a very bearish topping candle occuring tomorrow...

A/D
- just like yesterday as its very lopsided to the bears


Analysis: capitulation seemed to be the talk of the day from cnbc...dunno if they talked about that yesterday or the day before as i haven't watched cnbc in a while though...anyway, i don't buy the capitulation theory...not until we go to my target will i think we can have a strong bounce...a pullback tomorrow from today's panic selling at the close coupled with options ex is very likely in my opinion...what is also a scenario is a strong gap down to my target with a subsequent rally to close near the highs which would make me bullish...either way, i am holding my short position and will keep riding this party down until the charts prove to me that the bulls are back...

FYI: dow dropped 444 today...huge % fall...last big fall was 777...crazy these numbers huh? last one triggered a rally as 7 is a lucky number...4 is bad...does that mean that we have a nightmare in stored? ehh...just a fun thought...don't expect me to put money behind it.

ETFs:
best - gld, uup (gdx, smh, slv, xli, qqqq)
worst - oih, tan, xme, xle, kol, xlf
total - 2 up , 30 down, -6.60%

- my gut from seeing the ETFs is that today many stocks were trying to get a pause day and even a pullback but in the end, it all failed...the strongest sectors will fall hardest in the days to come as the hardest hit will take a slight breather for a few days...QQQQ, GDX, and SMH being strong doesn't seem bullish to me...just seems like a great shorting opportunity..and of course XLF being a weakling does confirm today's weakness

R.C. Market Report 11.20

• Tomorrow's Forecast: Volatile Expiration

• Along with the gap down at open, failure to recapture the major support line during the midday rally wiped out my bullishness. Backed by strong volume, yesterday's break of support was confirmed today.

• Tomorrow: I expect it to be volatile tomorrow. We are at the lows of 2002 and this will likely form a major battleground for days to come.

11/19 - Market Analysis

SPX
- very important breakdown
- bear bear bear!
- pullback possible


SPY 30"
- pullback levels marked
- area where i will turn bull is also marked



RKH
- very important level broken here too on increasing volume


USO
- no strength, no reason to get long indexes


VIX
- very important resistance was broken
- bear til we close below 70 once again


A/D
- very bearish....
- are u kidding me? 1% and 2% advancing volume for amex and nasdaq respectively? crazy bearish


Analysis: whats the point in fighting the tape? we got a breakdown and that is what i will be trading on any pullbacks...there are key indicators i look at such as the vix, uso, and spx's price support and resistance...all these tell me that the bear is back and the money will be in shorting the market, not in picking bottoms...as a breakdown after such oversold levels suggest that we need a bounce, the timing of that bounce is hard to say...what i think can happen is a bounce back to the breakdown levels trapping some longs, before a very harsh orderly descent occurs...unless we get a close above the breakdown level on good volume with uso and vix confirming the move, i find it useless to see the graphs in a bullish light...

ETFs:
best - ung, uup, dba, (gld, xlu, pph)
worst - tan, kol, rkh, xlf, xme, xhb
total - 3 up, 29 down, -5.46%

- overall pretty bearish...important sectors near the bottom of the list...pretty bad to see the selling in these areas...

R.C. Market Report 11.19

• Tomorrow's Forecast: Calling for Bull (2nd attempt)

• My new Calls were quickly stopped out by early weakness in the market. While I anticipated bullishness, market kept sliding down. My forecast was wrong and I failed to find good entry point for Put trades.

• Tomorrow: I still remain optimistically bullish. I believe that the next money making opportunity is to the upside and I do not feel good about putting money into new Puts. Therefore, I will keep taking chances to the upside at proper entry points but I must respect stop loss levels. With option expiration in two days, a crazy fear-driven move to the upside wouldn't surprise me. Something of historic proportions perhaps?

R.C. Market Report 11.18

• Tomorrow's Forecast: The Bull Is Here

• The rally in the final hour had volume, developed without receiving much attention unlike previous rallies, and occurred in the final hour of trading (first in a while). These are all very bullish signs making this move look suspiciously important.

• Tomorrow: Farewell bears indeed. Everyone expected a notable event to mark the turn of the market but this may be the best way to do it. Quitely, unnoticed. I, too, was left unconvinced to the very last second and didn't pull the trigger on the Calls. On any decline, I'm going to pick up Calls tomorrow morning. Regardless of how strong or weak the rally turns out to be, the momentum will be to the upside after today. Buy Calls. Next stop, top of trading range on daily, also coinciding with 50 day moving average line.

11/18 - Market Analysis

SPX
- still at support...can u believe this stupid sidetrading?
- tail is bullish
- didn't close at its highs


IWM
- COMPQ is still below support...IWM barely above support
- unable to close at its highs


USO
- no strength whatsoever...
- can't get long until this one stop looking so pathetic


VIX
- 70 level holds as resistance yet again...
- intraday i was very sure it would breakout but finished well below it
- 70 is key going forward...for now, VIX is neutral



A/D
- here u can see that today ain't very bullish
- strong divergence shown here by the numbers vs the performance in the dow...
- bearish signal


Analysis: Damn this market is frustrating...its been in this very important support level for almost a week now and still we have no idea where it will go next....its so frustrating for a swingtrader like me...risk/reward at this moment is horrible as the market can move big in either direction...as for now though, the market is still in a downtrend so unless we get some real strength in the indexes, i am favoring a breakdown...today was able to close above support for SPX but COMPQ is still below support and XLF and USO still can't find any support that will hold...i usually love bullish reversal candles on support with big tails but today's candle just didn't have the strength for me to turn bullish...i need more...too many mixed signals...many of which do point to further weakness

11/17 - Market Analysis

SPX
- closed right at the support on declining volume...tough to say if it will hold
- oscillators looking for a breakdown


SPY 30"
- 2x top's neckline held on the retest...
- still stuck in neutral land...


$compq
- broke support...might SPX follow?


GS
- shows how weak financials are
- GS not being able to hold any support is very bearish


USO
- as with GS, support was broken on light volume


VIX
- at 70 resistance yet again
- mirrors SPX as it closed rigt on an important level


Analysis: light volume, broken supports and lack of strength from USO and GS makes me feel that a breakdown is very possible...if this market was strong at all, i would be getting very bullish as its a great risk /reward level here...but the 30" chart looks way more bearish than a normal bounce off support...i am now feeling more bearish than bullish but will stay cashed out until the 30" chart confirms a direction

ETFs
best - ung, mdy, fxi (uup, xlu, eem)
worst - kol, xlf, uga, xrt, gdx, rkh, xme
total - 2 up, 1 side, 29 down, -1.89%

- surprisingly, the ETFs didn't do quite so bad...the damage seems limited to kol and xlf...its bullish to see fxi, eem, and mdy do so well...as financials are most important though, i don't see this analysis as bullish...