Tuesday, November 11, 2008

11/10 - Market Analysis

SPX
- bearish how it lost all its gains by midday
- bullish as its closed above support
- 20ma was resistance
- back to 50/50 on where it will go


NDX
- volume super light


RKH
- weaker than the indexes
- support broken on very light volume


USO
- very small gain after a nice gap up
- decent volume as it holds still above support


VIX
- unable to break resistance
- neutral going into tomorrow


A/D
- shows that today is much more bearish than index numbers suggests

Analysis: pretty light volume all day long...very quiet slow day was the mood i got...no panic selling...seems very orderly...bearish day by the numbers but very neutral in the scheme of things...the 20ma was supposed to be resistance and it was....can't read much from today as supports are held on the important charts and resistance continues to do its job...financials were the weak spot today and we definitely need financials especially stocks like BAC and GS to start performing well if a rally is to truly resume...today i was very close to shorting the market from neutral but as it didn't break support on the indexes from a 30" perspective, i held tight...now we are in the process of a possible short term 2x bottom to mark the end of a the fall and a resumption of the uptrend...as its still in the works and not yet confirmed, its not enough to trade on...but definitely important in terms of bullish indicators

ETFs:
best - gdx, ung, kol, fxi, uso, xme
worst - xhb, mdy, xlf, tan, xrt, hhh
overall = -0.65%, 17 down, 15 up

- pretty much an even day when analyzing ETFs...commodies able to hold some gains while financials were dragged to near its lows...

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