11/13 - Market Analysis

SPX
- textbook reversal candle off support today
- still no candle body under the support
- volume is good but not great
- the big move is kind of scary as it looks overdone if trying to be picky...


SPY 5"
- we can see here that all the volume was on the buying
- these volume bars show just how much big buying there was
- only scary thing is that there were no announcements or news that can explain it


Nasdaq
- another nice reversal


XLF
- bounced back above the support we broke yesterday
- light volume is disturbing


RKH
- held off support in similar fashion as the indexes....
- volume is nice here


GS
- still in a downtrend
- watch this to know how strong or weak this rally will be


USO
- like GS, this chart is not encouraging
- also like GS, this chart is very important
- a break of support and the indexes will crumble soon after


VIX
- beautiful how it hit 70 again huh?
- it failed to add to its latest rally
- what bulls want is a lower high here...we will get this if VIX keeps falling from this level


A/D
- numbers good but not great


Analysis: overall it was a very bullish day ending with a bullish candle...i would have been very bullish if it just closed up 300-400. but for it to close up as much as it did, it seems that we might get a strong pullback before moving higher...but definitely i don't feel its the time to short the market or to sell longs...its a time to hold, hope, and watch for a possible close below the important support area we bounced off of today...the volume was good for the buying intraday but as daily charts mean more, we have to be skeptical of the volume...fundamentalists will taut that today's move was a deadcat bounce as it was not no news but as a technician, i see today as very logical and real...for now, i will just accept the move and expect more rallying to come...it is not the time to go against the tape...a pullback will most likely occur as soon as tomorrow, but unless it breaks support, holding longs is still the best thing to do...

ETFs:
best- kol, xme, fxi, eem, gdx
worst - uup (ung, slv, dba, gld, xhb)
total - up 7.18%, 31 up, 1 down

- all this means if that any longs made money...very broadmarket rally today...the momentum stocks still seem to be the strongest..they will be the best to buy going forward as financials are the best if we breakdown from here...