Monday, November 17, 2008

11/17 - Market Analysis

SPX
- closed right at the support on declining volume...tough to say if it will hold
- oscillators looking for a breakdown


SPY 30"
- 2x top's neckline held on the retest...
- still stuck in neutral land...


$compq
- broke support...might SPX follow?


GS
- shows how weak financials are
- GS not being able to hold any support is very bearish


USO
- as with GS, support was broken on light volume


VIX
- at 70 resistance yet again
- mirrors SPX as it closed rigt on an important level


Analysis: light volume, broken supports and lack of strength from USO and GS makes me feel that a breakdown is very possible...if this market was strong at all, i would be getting very bullish as its a great risk /reward level here...but the 30" chart looks way more bearish than a normal bounce off support...i am now feeling more bearish than bullish but will stay cashed out until the 30" chart confirms a direction

ETFs
best - ung, mdy, fxi (uup, xlu, eem)
worst - kol, xlf, uga, xrt, gdx, rkh, xme
total - 2 up, 1 side, 29 down, -1.89%

- surprisingly, the ETFs didn't do quite so bad...the damage seems limited to kol and xlf...its bullish to see fxi, eem, and mdy do so well...as financials are most important though, i don't see this analysis as bullish...

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