- much reason to think that the nearterm top is now...
- also very very bullish to see SPX break above resistance and hold
SPY 30"
- inverse head and shoulders is what we got, not a 2x top confirmation...
- volume is light that suggests we might get to test the breakout level before a push up...
- overall though, no reason for any trend follower to feel bearish looking at this chart
XLF
- still got slightly more room to rise...friday might get right to the resistance
USO
- very huge volume on a very signifiant breakout...
- i declare the bottom in commodities!
VIX
- suggests more bullish action in the indexes to come...
- soon though, it will be right at a very strong support level..pullback for indexes?
A/D
- very bullish data...no divergence at all
Analysis: i've been stupid to be marking tops on this uptrend especially since i am a self professed trend follower (not trend resister). Right now, we have a slew of signals saying that a pullback is coming very soon and imminent, but honestly, it would be best just to hold all longs, have a long bias and get stopped out when this supposed pullback occurs...so right now, despite being pretty late to the party, am bullish...but without any positions...friday will be hard to call as the light volume..i would think that we have one last push up on very very light volume, then monday the volume gets slightly bigger and starts the pullback i've been looking for...
ETFs:
best - xme, fxi, kol, xhb, oih
worst - gld, pph, xlu, slv, (dba, uup, gdx)
- can't say much except that it shows how commodities seem to like the push up in oil...going forward, energy looks to be the best place to go long...i wonder if gold will start to fall now as defensive names such as consumer staples and pharma are the laggards
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