11/6 - Market Analysis

SPX
- this chart basically looks like every other chart i have here...so take note
- RSI, fib, and price support
- SS and volume looking bearish
- i think we will hold support but we also have a good possibility to want to test the lows and trade in a range for the next month


NDX
- same as spx



XLF
- weaker than rest as it broke all the fibs
- very important support below


RKH
- a better indicator of financials
- chart also resembles SPX


USO
- hinting to much more bearishness to come for oil and indexes
- broke the last final support
- might just be a headfake...but with huge volume, it looks legit
- most bearish chart here


VIX
- at 50ma and 50% fib
- originally my thought was a retest of 70...depends on how weak this market truly is...


A/D
- very very very bearish numbers
- hmm...this suggests that today is real...so basically, we need a catalyst to avoid retesting lows on the charts...cross your fingers!


Analysis: support is clearly seen on the charts...but the lows also look very likely...right now, we are 50/50. best spot i say would be cash waiting to buy when we get a tick up...or mostly cash but holding a small put position...the charts are looking beautiful now if this pullback is done with...if it declines more, we also have some great breakdowns...with asian markets getting slammed yet again, it seems like a pretty bad opening tomorrow unless we somehow get good jobs numbers...my gut feeling is that we are yet again selling on the rumors...and when the news come out, ppl will buy...total opposite of the rally we just had with the elections...with the consistent orderly decline, it is looking very much like a pullback...despite not wanting to sway too far away from technical analysis, i am somewhat thinking market psychology here..and with the orderly declines, i have to say that it truly is a lack of buyers not a huge supply or sellers...basically the price has not been right to go long, and once a good retracement price is hit, buyers will once again rule the market...anyway, i am a trend follower...until we tick up, i am not buying...

Sectors:
best - uup (xrt, gld, eem, dba, iyk, pph)
worst - kol, xme, gdx, smh, tan, uso, fxi
total - 31 of 32 declined, -5.08% total

-wow...crazy weak today...what does surprise me is how well retail and eem did...either weay...most everything else did bad...IWM was best of the indexes and SPY was worst...i would say that for this next rally to happen, XLF and RKH need to be near the top...and i also expect for the next major rally to have them leading..therefore the best to buy...definitely have to make ppl feel weary to have bought so bullishly when financials wasn't leading or being talked about...next leg will be different...