11/5 - Market Analysis

SPX
- start of a pullback...or worse...
- got some slight possibility that the fib retracement will hold up but i kind of doubt it
- not huge volume makes me think we are more likely to see a few days of pullback than another collapse


NDX
- same story as many other charts with the 20ma and fib right at the closing price


XLF
- looking so tight and orderly that this rally might turn out to be a bearish flag
- not much support on the way down...as one of the weaker sectors, this is a good short if shorting


RKH
- here we can see again the 20ma and 38 fib
- bigger volume is bearish


USO
- lighter volume than yesterday
- can be a bear flag...if breaks down, a good area to short...energy!


VIX
- finally it got a nice pullback...now its at the levels i was looking at a few days ago
- it has good probability to retest 70 area again


A/D
- overall very bearish
- volume is good sign that today will probably not be a 1 day fluke...

Analysis: we had the calm...now is this the start of the storm? very likely...definitely felt like a "sell the news" kind of day where late bulls of last week got suckered into positions and wanted to get out...consistent selloff today..not much panic except in last few minutes and with light volume...so definitely looks more like a pullback that might have a couple more days of strength but in the end, probably will make new highs yet again...financials will be key..when they stop falling, the rally will resume...asian markets sold off big, so a big gap down tomorrow is definitely not out of the question...i assumed we would have a pullback but so big makes me think its possible that this pullback is shorter than i once thought...but comparing the size of the moves prior to the consolidation days, today was actually quite normal...so i dunno...i would short some positions til we get proved wrong...better to short in a bear market anyway...if this market is strong, we will consolidate a little tomorrow...if this market wants to retest lows, we will gap down and continue tacking on 300+ pt losses...

Sectors:
best - slv, uup, (ung, xlu, gdx, iyk)
worst - tan, eem, kol, fxi, xlf, xme

- most important is that financials are near the worst...that means today is very bearish...and for the leading sectors to fall big is just normal as they needed a ncie strong pullback...they make for good shorts i believe..the best performers were just actual commodities...basically safety plays that haven't been overbought...overall, i think its safe to short atleast 1 or 2 more days...