11/12 - Market Analysis

SPX
- on major support
- definitely we are expecting a big breakdown or an awesome bounce
- volume increasing slightly which is bad


COMPQ
- even nearer to the major support...
- cannot even gap much lower as it will cause an ugly candle even if we close above



XLF
- broke the very crucial support
- now at new lows
- if SPX breaks down, u know where to short...


USO
- only on the month can we now get support
- this are is a potential level of support...but who knows?


VIX
- made me a fool as it broke above resistance
- now 70 is very much in its grasps...a break above with a breakdown in SPX, and bears will rule for a long time ahead


A/D
- as with every other stat, the market was very weak today


Analysis: taking today in an isolated case, we are very weak...and the markets should continue to crumble...when adding XLF's breakdown and USO's weakness, we have no reason to not go 100% short the market...BUT as SPX is the most important chart, we do have to put much of the weight onto SPX's action today that closed it almost right on the low close of the year...it makes for very strong support below and a very horrible risk/reward if we went short today at the EOD...i made a mistake in saying that XLF's breakdown will be crucial as SPX is much more important...XLF has the power to lead, therefore the breakdown is important...but not enough to trade on...very much like how i look at oscillators for possible clues into the future...but yah...trade with SPX...if u are, u would be in cash...(have to say thats its tough as shit having to stay out of the market as it tanked...)

ETFs:
best - uup (pph, dba, gld, xlu, iyk)
worst - tan, xme, gdx, kol, xle, eem, hhh
total = -5.66%, only 1 positive

- very ugly day...no bright spots...just noticing how dia remains slightly stronger than iwm, qqqq, and spy