11/20 - Market Analysis

SPX
- just keeps falling
- had a nice pullback intrday on light volume that eventually failed
- selling doesn't seem over yet...


SPY 30"
- downtrend very much intact until my stop gets breached....
- pullback likely


DIA
- huge huge volume as it broke down on its support
- last of the indexes to breakdown
- target is well below these levels


USO
- if this is the end of it, we haven't seen it yet in USO or any other charts....


VIX
- possible 2x top with bearish divergence...
- not tradable top as today's candle was bullish, not bearish
- might hint for a very bearish topping candle occuring tomorrow...

A/D
- just like yesterday as its very lopsided to the bears


Analysis: capitulation seemed to be the talk of the day from cnbc...dunno if they talked about that yesterday or the day before as i haven't watched cnbc in a while though...anyway, i don't buy the capitulation theory...not until we go to my target will i think we can have a strong bounce...a pullback tomorrow from today's panic selling at the close coupled with options ex is very likely in my opinion...what is also a scenario is a strong gap down to my target with a subsequent rally to close near the highs which would make me bullish...either way, i am holding my short position and will keep riding this party down until the charts prove to me that the bulls are back...

FYI: dow dropped 444 today...huge % fall...last big fall was 777...crazy these numbers huh? last one triggered a rally as 7 is a lucky number...4 is bad...does that mean that we have a nightmare in stored? ehh...just a fun thought...don't expect me to put money behind it.

ETFs:
best - gld, uup (gdx, smh, slv, xli, qqqq)
worst - oih, tan, xme, xle, kol, xlf
total - 2 up , 30 down, -6.60%

- my gut from seeing the ETFs is that today many stocks were trying to get a pause day and even a pullback but in the end, it all failed...the strongest sectors will fall hardest in the days to come as the hardest hit will take a slight breather for a few days...QQQQ, GDX, and SMH being strong doesn't seem bullish to me...just seems like a great shorting opportunity..and of course XLF being a weakling does confirm today's weakness