11/19 - Market Analysis

SPX
- very important breakdown
- bear bear bear!
- pullback possible


SPY 30"
- pullback levels marked
- area where i will turn bull is also marked



RKH
- very important level broken here too on increasing volume


USO
- no strength, no reason to get long indexes


VIX
- very important resistance was broken
- bear til we close below 70 once again


A/D
- very bearish....
- are u kidding me? 1% and 2% advancing volume for amex and nasdaq respectively? crazy bearish


Analysis: whats the point in fighting the tape? we got a breakdown and that is what i will be trading on any pullbacks...there are key indicators i look at such as the vix, uso, and spx's price support and resistance...all these tell me that the bear is back and the money will be in shorting the market, not in picking bottoms...as a breakdown after such oversold levels suggest that we need a bounce, the timing of that bounce is hard to say...what i think can happen is a bounce back to the breakdown levels trapping some longs, before a very harsh orderly descent occurs...unless we get a close above the breakdown level on good volume with uso and vix confirming the move, i find it useless to see the graphs in a bullish light...

ETFs:
best - ung, uup, dba, (gld, xlu, pph)
worst - tan, kol, rkh, xlf, xme, xhb
total - 3 up, 29 down, -5.46%

- overall pretty bearish...important sectors near the bottom of the list...pretty bad to see the selling in these areas...