- Market Trend: Downtrend
- Optimism returned to wallstreet today. The rally today was certainly a lot stronger than I had anticipated. There's hope for the passing of another plan before end of the week. There's also hope for an interest rate cut behind failure of first plan and possibly the second plan. While the fundamental story offers hope, technically the downtrend remains uninterrupted. Personally, I find it easier to stay 100% technical because the fundamental story offers too much volatility.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
R.C. Market Report 09.30
R.C. Market Report 09.29
- Market Trend: Downtrend
- The market took a historic beating today. Although it felt like capitulation on an emotional level, trading volume didn't indicate massive panic selling. This may mean that the selling pressure is beginning to wane in the near term. We are now back to wondering what will the Fed do next. Technically, we made fresh new lows today, breaking the support from last last week. If we are to make a short term rally from here, it'll take a few days to form a bottom. September is historically the worst performing month of the year. It surely didn't disappoint this year.
Monday, September 29, 2008
9/29 - Market Analysis
In the News
- bailout rejected by house of reps today..dems voted for it, republicans voted against it...
- market made biggest point drop in years...
- biggest point drop ever for DJIA - down 777 points...still lucky number?
Technicals
- all supports broken
- very nice volume that shows strong selling
- nasdaq weakest
- iwm only major average that is still holding major support
- commodities was one of the hardest hit
Commentary
- today was like earnings for the market. estimates were in and predictions were made. since a week ago, new money has been trapped in the market anticipating that paulson's bailout would get passed causing a strong rally. today, traders realized that that might not happen..atleast not yet. and hence, the weak hands sold off with strong panic...as for the "conference call", congress once again dissapointed the market by pointing fingers...they did not give optimistic statements, therefore, the market fell to its lows in the last hour of trading...
- today was basically just a huge earnings miss and bad forecast...
SPX
- huge bearish candle
- big volume
- weak all day
- no sector spared
- no near support
NDX
- hit very hard
- big cap tech did not hold up...instead they lagged
- volume is exceptional...
- no nearby support
XLF...
- still got support below
RKH...
- on good support
- able to finish off its lows
- not surprised if we bounce up from here, leading the market
UUP
- strong resistance
- should have rose much more if bailout didn't pass
- telling us maybe bailout might pass very soon
USO
- fell like a rock like all other commodities
- can fall much more from here...
- don't touch!
Advance / Decline
- like the markets, it was very one-sided...a true selloff...
Analysis: Its a beautiful time to be sidelined...action in the market and the news everyday is exciting..bad of ppl who are investors as its neither a good time to buy nor sell...its a holding game...i am waiting for a good chance to get long commodities...nothing falls in a straight line, so all we can do is be patient and look for good setups...tomorrow should yield some gov't intervention of some kind. paulson and the fed will not just let the markets freefall...get ready for a fed rate cut, an emergengy meeting to revote on the bailout....something...this is what has been happening everytime there has been true panic and sadness on wall street..i don't expect it to be any different this time around...shorts should have taken profits and longs should have held...tomorrow or very soon, there will be some relief...
- bailout rejected by house of reps today..dems voted for it, republicans voted against it...
- market made biggest point drop in years...
- biggest point drop ever for DJIA - down 777 points...still lucky number?
Technicals
- all supports broken
- very nice volume that shows strong selling
- nasdaq weakest
- iwm only major average that is still holding major support
- commodities was one of the hardest hit
Commentary
- today was like earnings for the market. estimates were in and predictions were made. since a week ago, new money has been trapped in the market anticipating that paulson's bailout would get passed causing a strong rally. today, traders realized that that might not happen..atleast not yet. and hence, the weak hands sold off with strong panic...as for the "conference call", congress once again dissapointed the market by pointing fingers...they did not give optimistic statements, therefore, the market fell to its lows in the last hour of trading...
- today was basically just a huge earnings miss and bad forecast...
SPX
- huge bearish candle
- big volume
- weak all day
- no sector spared
- no near support
NDX
- hit very hard
- big cap tech did not hold up...instead they lagged
- volume is exceptional...
- no nearby support
XLF...
- still got support below
RKH...
- on good support
- able to finish off its lows
- not surprised if we bounce up from here, leading the market
UUP
- strong resistance
- should have rose much more if bailout didn't pass
- telling us maybe bailout might pass very soon
USO
- fell like a rock like all other commodities
- can fall much more from here...
- don't touch!
Advance / Decline
- like the markets, it was very one-sided...a true selloff...
Analysis: Its a beautiful time to be sidelined...action in the market and the news everyday is exciting..bad of ppl who are investors as its neither a good time to buy nor sell...its a holding game...i am waiting for a good chance to get long commodities...nothing falls in a straight line, so all we can do is be patient and look for good setups...tomorrow should yield some gov't intervention of some kind. paulson and the fed will not just let the markets freefall...get ready for a fed rate cut, an emergengy meeting to revote on the bailout....something...this is what has been happening everytime there has been true panic and sadness on wall street..i don't expect it to be any different this time around...shorts should have taken profits and longs should have held...tomorrow or very soon, there will be some relief...
9/28 - Weekly Market Analysis
SPX weekly
- major support broken
- still in a downtrend
- no reason to go long yet...
NDX weekly
- major support broken
- weak support holding at close
- can go much lower here as it lags other indexes
XLF weekly
- at downtrend line still
- still similar in pattern to last 2 bear flags
- more likely to fall than breakout
USO weekly
- more of a bounce seems possible
- major support below held and will be very crucial in future
- target cannot be higher than the 61.8% retracement as of now
Analysis: The longer term weekly technicals here seem to suggest that this bailout that is waiting to be approved by congress will ultimately fail...and that the dollar will weaken in the short run giving commodities a nice bounce. But as europe bailed out a huge belgium bank this weekend and will probably be forced to lower interest rates and do more gov't intervention soon to bailout its own economy, the dollar might find itself strengthening relative to the euro and other currencies...
- major support broken
- still in a downtrend
- no reason to go long yet...
NDX weekly
- major support broken
- weak support holding at close
- can go much lower here as it lags other indexes
XLF weekly
- at downtrend line still
- still similar in pattern to last 2 bear flags
- more likely to fall than breakout
USO weekly
- more of a bounce seems possible
- major support below held and will be very crucial in future
- target cannot be higher than the 61.8% retracement as of now
Analysis: The longer term weekly technicals here seem to suggest that this bailout that is waiting to be approved by congress will ultimately fail...and that the dollar will weaken in the short run giving commodities a nice bounce. But as europe bailed out a huge belgium bank this weekend and will probably be forced to lower interest rates and do more gov't intervention soon to bailout its own economy, the dollar might find itself strengthening relative to the euro and other currencies...
Friday, September 26, 2008
Rino's Analysis of Presidential Debate #1
On Economy:
- Current economic mess is beyond the capabilities of these two men. Obama showed his inexperience and lack of knowledge on the issue by failing to propose a reasonable solution or even a path to a solution to the financial crisis. McCain has no idea what is going on in the financial world and he came in unprepared as he failed to answer the question that had to be readdressed three times. Obama managed to come up over McCain on this subject simply by attacking the Bush administration near the end of the segment.
On War (Iraq & Afghanistan):
- McCain had no way to defend himself and President Bush on this subject. His defensive efforts to make time pass by telling individual stories was sad. Obama managed to attack the opposition enough to win this segment as well. Granted, any qualifying member opposite of Bush would have done well here, but a win is a win.
On Foreign Relations (Iran, Russia, North Korea):
- McCain dominated this part. He had so much experience to fall back on and knowledge down to the minor details in this area that this was a blowout. Obama showed, much like he did on economic issues, his youth and lack of experience on this subject. Obama slipped in his talks about willing to sit face to face with the president of Iran and McCain didn't miss his opportunity to attack. McCain wins here.
My Final Verdict:
- One thing that was made absolutely clear in this debate was that currently, nothing is more important than the state of US economy. We've transitioned from being focused on War to Energy to now Domestic Economy. With the focus being on economy, I noticed two distinct changes. First, McCain lost his strength. His strength is war. He's lived through it and he knows it by heart. If this was year 2004, John McCain would be our president. No question. But war has taken a back seat to economy. Second, Obama (at least in this debate) could not emphasize the Democratic strong points of health care reform and alternative energy solutions. With "Cut Spending" being the main theme, he couldn't openly endorse programs that would require even more government spending. Both candidates lost their edge because of this and neither looked strong on the subject of economy. That is both discouraging and scary.
- However, I slightly favor Obama for one reason. It is because this is 2008 and not 2004. As inexperienced as he is, he is open to accepting new ideas and suggestions. He is surrounded by people who are more experienced and this has shaped him to stay flexible. When it came to foreign relations, he was too soft and passive. Clearly, he had not dealt with ignorant tyrants. But, this is 2008 and what that means is that we now have more foreign investments in US than at any other time in the history of this country. We've depended on it in the form of sovereignty funds to our exports exceeding imports. And to recover from this financial crisis, whenever that may be, I believe that we are going to require even more financial help from foreigners. Obama, by chance or by plan, will likely be passive enough to carry out a more peaceful war-free 4 years of presidency that will increase the likelyhood of us receiving foreign capital injections.
- Therefore, after debate #1, I am voting for Barack Obama.
9/26 - Market Analysis
In the News
- WM is bought by JPM...WM drops to pennies, and JPM rises 10% as it was a great deal for JPM
- Bailout talks continue with a neutral stance on what will the plan be and when it will be approved
- RIMM posted a horrible outlook, dropping QQQQ to a very bad open
- C downgraded agriculture based on low demand for fertilizer and the difficulties of getting loans now because of credit crisis
- Financial institutions get tighter with lending practices (GE for Sonic and BAC for MCD), this will slow down growth and might be the next shoe to fall...wait a couple of quarters to hear the negatives of this
Technical Highlights
- indexes finished at their highs
- QQQQ very impressive as it made a bullish candle out of bad news and a horrible gap down
- financials led the charge in the last hour
- commodities fell pretty hard, especially agriculture but many were able to finish off lows as it rallied slightly at the EOD
SPX
- at good resistance but with this week's low volume pullback, it might be getting ready for a big breakout
- watch the bullish divergence
NDX
- able to hold off a real bad chart.
- we now have a nice possible 2x bottom if it holds
- still weak
XLF
- the rectangle continues to be important as it bounced right off it at the open..
- closing at highs is good...
- 100% neutral
UUP
- dollar at good resistance....
- rose this weak on very low volume...
- still in a downtrend in the shortrun
USO
- commodities fell but USO recovered from the bad start to end relatively flat
- eye the possible bull flag being made presently
Analysis: with light volume, i honestly can't make any predictions going forward...i would wait on doing anything involving the indexes and financials...the dollar and commodities trade is not even looking too easy now as i see that we might get some breakouts...i'm paper trading now and i don't feel i'm missing much...i think once the short ban is off and the bailout is out of the headlines, it'll be more fun and predictable in the market...for now, just be careful
Ideal Portfolio
- take profits off commodity and energy shorts
- small position going long indexes
- WM is bought by JPM...WM drops to pennies, and JPM rises 10% as it was a great deal for JPM
- Bailout talks continue with a neutral stance on what will the plan be and when it will be approved
- RIMM posted a horrible outlook, dropping QQQQ to a very bad open
- C downgraded agriculture based on low demand for fertilizer and the difficulties of getting loans now because of credit crisis
- Financial institutions get tighter with lending practices (GE for Sonic and BAC for MCD), this will slow down growth and might be the next shoe to fall...wait a couple of quarters to hear the negatives of this
Technical Highlights
- indexes finished at their highs
- QQQQ very impressive as it made a bullish candle out of bad news and a horrible gap down
- financials led the charge in the last hour
- commodities fell pretty hard, especially agriculture but many were able to finish off lows as it rallied slightly at the EOD
SPX
- at good resistance but with this week's low volume pullback, it might be getting ready for a big breakout
- watch the bullish divergence
NDX- able to hold off a real bad chart.
- we now have a nice possible 2x bottom if it holds
- still weak
XLF
- the rectangle continues to be important as it bounced right off it at the open..
- closing at highs is good...
- 100% neutral
UUP
- dollar at good resistance....
- rose this weak on very low volume...
- still in a downtrend in the shortrun
USO
- commodities fell but USO recovered from the bad start to end relatively flat
- eye the possible bull flag being made presently
Analysis: with light volume, i honestly can't make any predictions going forward...i would wait on doing anything involving the indexes and financials...the dollar and commodities trade is not even looking too easy now as i see that we might get some breakouts...i'm paper trading now and i don't feel i'm missing much...i think once the short ban is off and the bailout is out of the headlines, it'll be more fun and predictable in the market...for now, just be careful
Ideal Portfolio
- take profits off commodity and energy shorts
- small position going long indexes
R.C. Market Report 09.26
- Market Trend: Neutral
- We've come a long way in just two weeks. Fannie, Freddie, Lehman, Merrill, AIG and now WaMu's failures plus the disappearance of the investment banking sector thanks to makeovers at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. We had a Fed meeting, SEC's banning of shorting, and plenty of congressional hearings. And it's all coming to an end this weekend with the completion of the Paulson's Plan. The plan will pass regardless of what anyone says. Political posturing by J. McCain delayed the inevitable for a couple of days. But enough of that.
- The market needs to take time and digest all of these changes. It's gone through two weeks of hell and everyone is relieved that so much has passed. That is why I am calling for a relief rally from this point going forward. I expect for choppy trading to continue, but the trend should be an uptrend with the initial primary target being 1325 on S&P 500 where 200MA will provide a solid resistance. I don't know how long it'll take to get there but I think it's safe to say that we won't be making new lows for the next couple of months.
- Thursday Oct 2. is when the shorting ban expires. Fast Money mentioned today that we may get a rally because people bought puts in market ETFs when shorting was banned. With the release of the ban, those puts will come off and it can be positive for the market. So keep an eye on that date. And before you know it, the earning season will be here!
9/25 - Market Analysis
In the News
- Just rumors about a possible passing of the bailout plan is very very near
Technical Highlights
- Started strong but little blips in the day kept pulling the average lower and in the end, it ended way lower than its highs...bearish
- volume still way low...seems like nobody buying the rumors just yet
SPX....up but overall neutral
NDX...neutral...
XLF....very neutral
UUP...inching up but on possible resistance...a plan breakdown or revision might shoot up the dollar as the 700Billion dollar plan passing seems to be factored into the dollar already
USO...short oil!!!! plan will probably get delayed and revised as of the news today..and if that happens, dollar up, commodities down! Not to mention that resistance is very strong...good risk/ reward
Analysis: overall its best to just stay neutral and play individual charts...oil looks to fall and dollar looks go gain..so i would also look at shorts in commodities...but as news is ruling the market, its also great to just take a nice vacation from all this low volume bullshit..feels like the last week of august to me...very bullshit like...calm be4 the storm i guess right???
Ideal Portfolio:
- long dollar
- short oil and commodities
- Just rumors about a possible passing of the bailout plan is very very near
Technical Highlights
- Started strong but little blips in the day kept pulling the average lower and in the end, it ended way lower than its highs...bearish
- volume still way low...seems like nobody buying the rumors just yet
SPX....up but overall neutral
NDX...neutral...
XLF....very neutral
UUP...inching up but on possible resistance...a plan breakdown or revision might shoot up the dollar as the 700Billion dollar plan passing seems to be factored into the dollar already
USO...short oil!!!! plan will probably get delayed and revised as of the news today..and if that happens, dollar up, commodities down! Not to mention that resistance is very strong...good risk/ reward
Analysis: overall its best to just stay neutral and play individual charts...oil looks to fall and dollar looks go gain..so i would also look at shorts in commodities...but as news is ruling the market, its also great to just take a nice vacation from all this low volume bullshit..feels like the last week of august to me...very bullshit like...calm be4 the storm i guess right???
Ideal Portfolio:
- long dollar
- short oil and commodities
Thursday, September 25, 2008
R.C. Market Report 09.25
- Market Trend: Neutral
- The market caught a bid today, expecting a conclusion to the bailout plan. I find it a little worrisome for tomorrow's action that the market went up in anticipation of the annoucement. RIMM's earning disappointment is also weighing down on the market after-hours. Therefore, I'm not expecting great upside for tomorrow. What if the Senate decides not to offer a one time lumpsum loan, or drag it into the weekend. Too many variables that can go opposite of the expectation. Instead, I'd wait until next week for any chance of a sustainable rally.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
9/24 - Market Analysis
In the News:
- house of representative's meetings with paulson and bernanke...boring!
- subsidies for solar energy are extended for a few more years
Technical Highlights:
- overall sidetrading within a 200 pt range on the dow...compared to late, this is a very tight range
- end of day 10" push ended the day at even, making a doji
- first time in days that the last 30" didn't just crash and burn...bullish sign...
- nasdaq was leader most of the day
- futures up from buffett investing in GS didn't amount to anything by the open
SPX...doji close at yesterday's close...making a slight hold in the shortterm picture
NDX...the leader but still not much of a leader...fizzled moves towards the late hours of trading...very close to a pure collapse
XLF...financials did worse than most other sectors as volume faded...
UUP...dollar chart looks the most strong of all the charts mentioned today...sitting nicely on strong support...it looks ready to continue its rally once again...the bailout plan would spoil everything though, so be a little careful here
USO...at very very strong resistance...i wonder if commodities will get affected much by the bailout...from here though, looks like a good trade for the bears...same with most other commodities. its the only real trade i see out there...so boring!
Analysis: For the first time in a long time, i feel like my blogs aren't really necessary...for the past 3 posts now, i have been mentioning mainly the same stuff with very little enthusiasm...as charts trade sideways on very light volume and nothing but paulson on CNBC, i can't help but feel bored...i am 100% cash at the moment and don't think i will see any great trades til next week. I am just hoping for IV to be back to normal by then....IV is really killing most of the trades out there...the spreads in options are also crazy...lack of traders is hurting the options market for sure...today felt very very long!
Ideal Portfolio:
- short solar and energy names
- long QQQQ, SPY as i expect a boring 1 or 2 day rally to begin tomorrow on light volume to end the week at pure neutral...
- house of representative's meetings with paulson and bernanke...boring!
- subsidies for solar energy are extended for a few more years
Technical Highlights:
- overall sidetrading within a 200 pt range on the dow...compared to late, this is a very tight range
- end of day 10" push ended the day at even, making a doji
- first time in days that the last 30" didn't just crash and burn...bullish sign...
- nasdaq was leader most of the day
- futures up from buffett investing in GS didn't amount to anything by the open
SPX...doji close at yesterday's close...making a slight hold in the shortterm picture
NDX...the leader but still not much of a leader...fizzled moves towards the late hours of trading...very close to a pure collapse
XLF...financials did worse than most other sectors as volume faded...
UUP...dollar chart looks the most strong of all the charts mentioned today...sitting nicely on strong support...it looks ready to continue its rally once again...the bailout plan would spoil everything though, so be a little careful here
USO...at very very strong resistance...i wonder if commodities will get affected much by the bailout...from here though, looks like a good trade for the bears...same with most other commodities. its the only real trade i see out there...so boring!
Analysis: For the first time in a long time, i feel like my blogs aren't really necessary...for the past 3 posts now, i have been mentioning mainly the same stuff with very little enthusiasm...as charts trade sideways on very light volume and nothing but paulson on CNBC, i can't help but feel bored...i am 100% cash at the moment and don't think i will see any great trades til next week. I am just hoping for IV to be back to normal by then....IV is really killing most of the trades out there...the spreads in options are also crazy...lack of traders is hurting the options market for sure...today felt very very long!
Ideal Portfolio:
- short solar and energy names
- long QQQQ, SPY as i expect a boring 1 or 2 day rally to begin tomorrow on light volume to end the week at pure neutral...
R.C. Market Report 09.24
- Market Trend: Neutral
- Market traded within a very tight price range. There were multiple attempts to break the support, thes strongest attempt near the close, but all attempts have been unsuccessful. Congressional hearings continued and it looks as though the market is handcuffed until this deal gets resolved one way or another. Faster and smaller trades are recommended and being completely on the sideline isn't a bad option either.
Bunning Speaking the Truth 9/9/08
Oldie but a Goodie...Video from a few weeks back but definitely one of the best videos concerning the bailouts i've ever seen...Paul / Bunning 2012!
9/23 - Market Analysis
In the News:
- Paulson, Bernanke, Cox on the hill answering questions about their proposed bailout. seems like some sort of bailout will be passed....just don't know when and how the details will be....damn i hate paulson!
- After hours, "The Warren" makes a hefty investment into Goldman Sacks...traders see this as a possible bottom to financials
Technical Highlights:
- smooth continued fall in the markets today despite an open higher
- volume continues to be super low since the short ban last friday
- indexes nearing new 52 week lows
SPX...more hurt in this market...watch the 52 week lows and volume...should just go sideways here if no huge headlines show up
NDX...very close to a new 52 week low on mediocre volume...
XLF...in between support and resistance and now at the MA that might act as support...sideways
UUP...dollar showing very slight strength today...might be able to hold these levels...
CRB...coming up on good resistance as it was unable to add to its rally today...might be time to start shorting again
Analysis: With my finger hurting, i will keep this short...light volume finally hit the market...last week i wondering what would happen if volume were to stop increasing and this week we know...basically its one sided movement...right now its the bears...very quiet seeming...as short sellers are out of biz til the ban is lifted and prices stay inflated and inaccurate because of a lack of volume and the inability to short financials, it seems to all make sense as to why the volume has been low and bearish....i'm actually happy with this slow action as it allows me to keep these blogs short and give more time to analyzing my trading strategy...
For Tomorrow:
- look into shorting commodities if dollar strengthens more...
- keep an eye out for ron paul as i expect him to be at the congressional hearing tomorrow!
- Paulson, Bernanke, Cox on the hill answering questions about their proposed bailout. seems like some sort of bailout will be passed....just don't know when and how the details will be....damn i hate paulson!
- After hours, "The Warren" makes a hefty investment into Goldman Sacks...traders see this as a possible bottom to financials
Technical Highlights:
- smooth continued fall in the markets today despite an open higher
- volume continues to be super low since the short ban last friday
- indexes nearing new 52 week lows
SPX...more hurt in this market...watch the 52 week lows and volume...should just go sideways here if no huge headlines show up
NDX...very close to a new 52 week low on mediocre volume...
XLF...in between support and resistance and now at the MA that might act as support...sideways
UUP...dollar showing very slight strength today...might be able to hold these levels...
CRB...coming up on good resistance as it was unable to add to its rally today...might be time to start shorting again
Analysis: With my finger hurting, i will keep this short...light volume finally hit the market...last week i wondering what would happen if volume were to stop increasing and this week we know...basically its one sided movement...right now its the bears...very quiet seeming...as short sellers are out of biz til the ban is lifted and prices stay inflated and inaccurate because of a lack of volume and the inability to short financials, it seems to all make sense as to why the volume has been low and bearish....i'm actually happy with this slow action as it allows me to keep these blogs short and give more time to analyzing my trading strategy...
For Tomorrow:
- look into shorting commodities if dollar strengthens more...
- keep an eye out for ron paul as i expect him to be at the congressional hearing tomorrow!
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
R.C. Market Report 09.23
- Market Trend: Neutral
- This market trading environment is as frustrating as the Congressional hearing. The slow decline in the market along with Paulson's repetitive unconvincing answers put me to sleep. While the market still hangs onto the gains from last thursday and friday, we are coming awfully close to making a new closing low. I do believe that a bounce of some magnitude is in store in coming days but I'm beginning to be more pessimistic about the strength and the length of that rally. Stick to fast trades. Too hard to trade off of daily chart.
Monday, September 22, 2008
R.C. Market Report 09.22
- Market Trend: Neutral
- The market pulled back as expected today. We registered another 300+pt move in the Dow but I expect that streak to come to an end very soon. The volatility in the market should lessen and with the confirmation of a higher low at these levels, I'd look for the market to head higher.
9/22 - Market Analysis
In the News:
- oil makes biggest one day dollar rise ever!
- dollar drops...biggest 1 day drop since 2001
- gold spikes
- GS and MS are now bank holding companies...more fed control and more free money to these favored equities...
Technical Highlights:
- very low volume
- huge fall that erased all of friday's gains
- financials led the fall even though they are banned from short selling...(proof that short sellers didn't cause the fall...the real reason was a lack of buyers...short sellers add liquidity and give relief rallies...watch the short squeeze done to oil today...idiots blaming short sellers should not be allowed on CNBC)
SPX...huge fall...engulfing candle that closed at support...i am bullish now. sidetrading here we come!
NDX...same kind of chart as SPX...again i don't see support breaking...more sidetrade here...
XLF...in between support and resistance as it fell hard on small volume...hard to beleive that it can break support now..
RKH...real weak area today...but as it falls back to the breakout area, i really have confidence that this level can hold as support...atleast for the remainder of the week
UUP...big, huge fall was the reason for so much of the news today...on huge volume as this chart looks possible of completely breaking down
USO...huge rally lately on dollar strength...can it keep going as oscillators look bullish? i would be watching the big resistance overhead...gonna take more than a short cover to break this level...
CRB...heard that all the commodities shot up today...its near good resistance...risk/ reward favors the bears...
A/D...this shows that we had a real selloff today...this means that tomorrow might drop some more..but enough to break supports, i dunno...
Analysis: STOP TRADING OPTIONS! unless u are a spreader or a seller of options, this is the absolute worst time to be trading options...beautiful charts out there for tomorrow but as i hate the IV and got burned on them today, i am staying away and i suggest every option trader do the same...as the VIX continues to rise as shorts are forced to buy puts because of the ban on short selling and as IV continues to make new 52 week highs in many if not most of the stocks, all option buyers are doing is gambling...the risk is horrible now...not only is time decay going to kill u but as volatility continues to slowly get sucked out, unless your equities move huge, you will end the day with a losing position...so my position for the coming week is...stay sidelined as the market will probably trade sideways on low volume which should suck volatility out of options and hopefully return back to good levels in a few weeks...
My Portfolio:
closed positions as of EOD (all losers today because of IV drain)
short MER (-4.92)
short EEM (-6.25%)
short ENER (+0.22%...sold at about -3%)
open positions (lost huge here today...i see these rebounding back)
short NEM (+6.16%)
long ABK (-9.3%)
- oil makes biggest one day dollar rise ever!
- dollar drops...biggest 1 day drop since 2001
- gold spikes
- GS and MS are now bank holding companies...more fed control and more free money to these favored equities...
Technical Highlights:
- very low volume
- huge fall that erased all of friday's gains
- financials led the fall even though they are banned from short selling...(proof that short sellers didn't cause the fall...the real reason was a lack of buyers...short sellers add liquidity and give relief rallies...watch the short squeeze done to oil today...idiots blaming short sellers should not be allowed on CNBC)
SPX...huge fall...engulfing candle that closed at support...i am bullish now. sidetrading here we come!
NDX...same kind of chart as SPX...again i don't see support breaking...more sidetrade here...
XLF...in between support and resistance as it fell hard on small volume...hard to beleive that it can break support now..
RKH...real weak area today...but as it falls back to the breakout area, i really have confidence that this level can hold as support...atleast for the remainder of the week
UUP...big, huge fall was the reason for so much of the news today...on huge volume as this chart looks possible of completely breaking down
USO...huge rally lately on dollar strength...can it keep going as oscillators look bullish? i would be watching the big resistance overhead...gonna take more than a short cover to break this level...
CRB...heard that all the commodities shot up today...its near good resistance...risk/ reward favors the bears...
A/D...this shows that we had a real selloff today...this means that tomorrow might drop some more..but enough to break supports, i dunno...
Analysis: STOP TRADING OPTIONS! unless u are a spreader or a seller of options, this is the absolute worst time to be trading options...beautiful charts out there for tomorrow but as i hate the IV and got burned on them today, i am staying away and i suggest every option trader do the same...as the VIX continues to rise as shorts are forced to buy puts because of the ban on short selling and as IV continues to make new 52 week highs in many if not most of the stocks, all option buyers are doing is gambling...the risk is horrible now...not only is time decay going to kill u but as volatility continues to slowly get sucked out, unless your equities move huge, you will end the day with a losing position...so my position for the coming week is...stay sidelined as the market will probably trade sideways on low volume which should suck volatility out of options and hopefully return back to good levels in a few weeks...
My Portfolio:
closed positions as of EOD (all losers today because of IV drain)
short MER (-4.92)
short EEM (-6.25%)
short ENER (+0.22%...sold at about -3%)
open positions (lost huge here today...i see these rebounding back)
short NEM (+6.16%)
long ABK (-9.3%)
Click here to send an e-letter to congressSunday, September 21, 2008
9/21 - Weekly Market Analysis
SPX weekly...bearish chart...puts everything into better perspective as to how little the bailouts have done...this even includes friday's huge move...
NDX weekly...nice candle to finish near highs, but still ended the week lower on increasing volume...the move up this week might have just been a retest of the triangle breakdown.
IWM weekly...If the recession is over, go bullish here...as for me, i don't think this resistance will get broken anytime soon...
XLF weekly...history repeats itself right? thats the basis of technical analysis...and what better case for me to be bearish on financials than pointing out the past...
USD weekly...the dollar is coming off a good bottoming out and reversal...still bullish looking despite the huge headlines about the dollar falling (in turn causing gold to rise)...
Futures..this was printed at about 5:45pm p.s.t. on 9/21/08....pointing to a sharply lower open on monday...all going to my bearish plan so far...
Analysis: I've been debating whether i've been rationally bearish heading into next week or am i just being stubborn and playing the market based on pure emotions....Being unsure, i have been examining the charts, and the more charts i analyze, the more confident i am of my bearish position. Weekly and daily charts show that we have hit strong resistance and that even with these bailout headlines, the charts have still remained bearish. one question i would like to ask is "why were the index ETF volumes so much lower than the real index volumes on friday?". My hypothesis is that much of the buying on friday was done by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) and not by institutional or real buyers...this explains why the volumes of indexes and their etf's had a big discrepency. I do not recall a time when the 2 volumes were so different. Anyway...for the coming week, my position remains bearish...
Gut Says: markets will crash and burn this week as congress and paulson struggles to pass the $700billion solution plan. without the plan, the market will fall to last week's lows....then maybe in the end of the week, when things feel very bearish, congress feels that their hands are tied and frantically passes the plan, which gives a shortterm boost to the market....
NDX weekly...nice candle to finish near highs, but still ended the week lower on increasing volume...the move up this week might have just been a retest of the triangle breakdown.
IWM weekly...If the recession is over, go bullish here...as for me, i don't think this resistance will get broken anytime soon...
XLF weekly...history repeats itself right? thats the basis of technical analysis...and what better case for me to be bearish on financials than pointing out the past...
USD weekly...the dollar is coming off a good bottoming out and reversal...still bullish looking despite the huge headlines about the dollar falling (in turn causing gold to rise)...
Futures..this was printed at about 5:45pm p.s.t. on 9/21/08....pointing to a sharply lower open on monday...all going to my bearish plan so far...
Analysis: I've been debating whether i've been rationally bearish heading into next week or am i just being stubborn and playing the market based on pure emotions....Being unsure, i have been examining the charts, and the more charts i analyze, the more confident i am of my bearish position. Weekly and daily charts show that we have hit strong resistance and that even with these bailout headlines, the charts have still remained bearish. one question i would like to ask is "why were the index ETF volumes so much lower than the real index volumes on friday?". My hypothesis is that much of the buying on friday was done by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) and not by institutional or real buyers...this explains why the volumes of indexes and their etf's had a big discrepency. I do not recall a time when the 2 volumes were so different. Anyway...for the coming week, my position remains bearish...
Gut Says: markets will crash and burn this week as congress and paulson struggles to pass the $700billion solution plan. without the plan, the market will fall to last week's lows....then maybe in the end of the week, when things feel very bearish, congress feels that their hands are tied and frantically passes the plan, which gives a shortterm boost to the market....
Ron Paul was Right!
Ron Paul on Glen Beck...discussing the unconstitutional actions of the SEC and Hank Paulson...who said that we live in a democratic country? this is pure socialism...
Friday, September 19, 2008
R.C. Market Report 09.19
- Market Trend: Neutral
- The wild week has finally ended. And with that, so has the downtrend for now. With a rally of 1000pts in less than two days, I fully anticipate a pullback early next week. Even a 38% retracement would mean a near 400pt give back so a healthy move down is in store. However, I believe that the uptick will stick this time and a good opportunity to get long will likely appear after the pullback.
- There's calm before the storm which leaves behind a rainbow. We had the calm period in August, followed by the stormy session, the bulk of which I believe ended today. Now I hope to see a rainbow and a pot of gold in the upcoming days. I project it to be in the form of an artificial rally that steadily rises into election.
9/19 - Market Analysis
In the News (another bullshit newsworthy day):
- SEC bans short selling on 799 financial companies (more try to get on the list including GE)
- Paulson and Bush talk ambiguously of the RTC-type rescue plan which would essentially buy up all the mortgage related assets of the books of financial instituations and will try to sell it out as would a bond or fund (oh yah...it might also cost a 1/2 trillion dollars that we don't currently have)
- ABK and MBI are threatened with downgrades from MCO
- Oil rallied up about 6%
- Gold prices have biggest one day fall in history
- Dollar falls
Technical Highlights
- Huge 500pt open...but stocks never go back to those levels by the close.
- some charts broke resistance slightly and sit on it, some flirted and are now just below resistance...but overall, resistance above for most charts is very strong
- ETF volume was low...all of them actually..which makes me think that the buying today was maybe PPT buying, not exactly institutions or funds buying
- every sector rallied...only thing down are morgage insurers...
-the week closed basically flat
SPX...big move on strong volume..now at good resistance...
NDX...failed to break resistance and closed well off highs....halved the gains actually by the close
RUT...ended above one resistance and now below a more important one...
MDY...bounced down at good resistance and now has to try to break it if it stands a chance to rally
XLF...the winner today when looking at sectors but it too didn't close near its highs...now is slightly below resistnace
RKH...weak close and highs near resistance...maybe this will turn into a shooting star bearish formation
UUP...dollar was up and down with strong volume...ended lower though but still within yesterday's candle
FXE...euro did well but very low volume...looks fishy as its at resistnace now
GLD...strong resistance held...gold dropped huge in the market but this ETF doesn't show it..anyway, the chart doesn't look like GLD has any more legs
USO...oil at resistnace as well and very close to the infamous 20 MA...as volume declines, it might be tough to hold these prices
A/D...these numbers suggest that today's move was legit...definitely bullish sign
BRK...for fun i had to show berkshire...crazy as its near its all time highs...biggest rise of almost any stock in the S&P and with huge volume too...damn thats a lot of money...
Analysis: Theme of the day is strong rally but closes way off lows and now has very strong resistance just above...as we are in a bear market...its expected to see strong failed rallies...and today seemed like one if we look at charts alone...charts alone, we wouldn't think much of today's move...but knowing the news and the gov't seeming to try everything in their power and even using powers they don't constitutionally have, its looking good for the bulls...but i decided a while back that i will make my main decisions based on technicals, not news...so in that case...i expect resistance to hold next week and for the markets to fall hard, especially financials...i have money on it...so i really want it to happen anyway...
My Performance: (was one of those days where i considered switching professions)
long XLF - up 11.84% ...dropped it at EOD
long ABK - down 41.98%...fuck me!
short EEM - up 12.45%...dammit
short ENER - up 16.65...picking all the winners..fuck...haha
short NEM - up 5.50%
so as u can see...it was one of the worst trading days for me this whole year...it was simply, a nightmare! dammit...
Ideal Portfolio:
before close
- take 100% profits off financial longs that made profit
- buy a financial short
at open
- 80% cash
- small positions in financial shorts
- small position shorting gold
- SEC bans short selling on 799 financial companies (more try to get on the list including GE)
- Paulson and Bush talk ambiguously of the RTC-type rescue plan which would essentially buy up all the mortgage related assets of the books of financial instituations and will try to sell it out as would a bond or fund (oh yah...it might also cost a 1/2 trillion dollars that we don't currently have)
- ABK and MBI are threatened with downgrades from MCO
- Oil rallied up about 6%
- Gold prices have biggest one day fall in history
- Dollar falls
Technical Highlights
- Huge 500pt open...but stocks never go back to those levels by the close.
- some charts broke resistance slightly and sit on it, some flirted and are now just below resistance...but overall, resistance above for most charts is very strong
- ETF volume was low...all of them actually..which makes me think that the buying today was maybe PPT buying, not exactly institutions or funds buying
- every sector rallied...only thing down are morgage insurers...
-the week closed basically flat
SPX...big move on strong volume..now at good resistance...
NDX...failed to break resistance and closed well off highs....halved the gains actually by the close
RUT...ended above one resistance and now below a more important one...
MDY...bounced down at good resistance and now has to try to break it if it stands a chance to rally
XLF...the winner today when looking at sectors but it too didn't close near its highs...now is slightly below resistnace
RKH...weak close and highs near resistance...maybe this will turn into a shooting star bearish formation
UUP...dollar was up and down with strong volume...ended lower though but still within yesterday's candle
FXE...euro did well but very low volume...looks fishy as its at resistnace now
GLD...strong resistance held...gold dropped huge in the market but this ETF doesn't show it..anyway, the chart doesn't look like GLD has any more legs
USO...oil at resistnace as well and very close to the infamous 20 MA...as volume declines, it might be tough to hold these prices
A/D...these numbers suggest that today's move was legit...definitely bullish sign
BRK...for fun i had to show berkshire...crazy as its near its all time highs...biggest rise of almost any stock in the S&P and with huge volume too...damn thats a lot of money...
Analysis: Theme of the day is strong rally but closes way off lows and now has very strong resistance just above...as we are in a bear market...its expected to see strong failed rallies...and today seemed like one if we look at charts alone...charts alone, we wouldn't think much of today's move...but knowing the news and the gov't seeming to try everything in their power and even using powers they don't constitutionally have, its looking good for the bulls...but i decided a while back that i will make my main decisions based on technicals, not news...so in that case...i expect resistance to hold next week and for the markets to fall hard, especially financials...i have money on it...so i really want it to happen anyway...
My Performance: (was one of those days where i considered switching professions)
long XLF - up 11.84% ...dropped it at EOD
long ABK - down 41.98%...fuck me!
short EEM - up 12.45%...dammit
short ENER - up 16.65...picking all the winners..fuck...haha
short NEM - up 5.50%
so as u can see...it was one of the worst trading days for me this whole year...it was simply, a nightmare! dammit...
Ideal Portfolio:
before close
- take 100% profits off financial longs that made profit
- buy a financial short
at open
- 80% cash
- small positions in financial shorts
- small position shorting gold
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