9/26 - Market Analysis

In the News
- WM is bought by JPM...WM drops to pennies, and JPM rises 10% as it was a great deal for JPM
- Bailout talks continue with a neutral stance on what will the plan be and when it will be approved
- RIMM posted a horrible outlook, dropping QQQQ to a very bad open
- C downgraded agriculture based on low demand for fertilizer and the difficulties of getting loans now because of credit crisis
- Financial institutions get tighter with lending practices (GE for Sonic and BAC for MCD), this will slow down growth and might be the next shoe to fall...wait a couple of quarters to hear the negatives of this

Technical Highlights
- indexes finished at their highs
- QQQQ very impressive as it made a bullish candle out of bad news and a horrible gap down
- financials led the charge in the last hour
- commodities fell pretty hard, especially agriculture but many were able to finish off lows as it rallied slightly at the EOD

SPX
- at good resistance but with this week's low volume pullback, it might be getting ready for a big breakout
- watch the bullish divergence

NDX
- able to hold off a real bad chart.
- we now have a nice possible 2x bottom if it holds
- still weak



XLF
- the rectangle continues to be important as it bounced right off it at the open..
- closing at highs is good...
- 100% neutral


UUP
- dollar at good resistance....
- rose this weak on very low volume...
- still in a downtrend in the shortrun


USO
- commodities fell but USO recovered from the bad start to end relatively flat
- eye the possible bull flag being made presently


Analysis: with light volume, i honestly can't make any predictions going forward...i would wait on doing anything involving the indexes and financials...the dollar and commodities trade is not even looking too easy now as i see that we might get some breakouts...i'm paper trading now and i don't feel i'm missing much...i think once the short ban is off and the bailout is out of the headlines, it'll be more fun and predictable in the market...for now, just be careful

Ideal Portfolio
- take profits off commodity and energy shorts
- small position going long indexes