My Performance: On a weekly basis, i did bad this week. Good picks, good analysis, just horrible execution. The best thing i guess was after blowing up early in the week and losing out on profits later on, i was able to stay patient and not buy ahead of the weekend as commodities no longer yield a great risk / reward and other sectors look more shaky than clear on their daily charts. So i am going into next week with 100% cash...
SPX...great intraday bullish move...but still ended lower on decent volume. In between support and resistance...
SPX weekly...we might be putting in a nice 2x bottom here with huge volume..but confirmation is needed this week...
NDX...incredible moves this week but as it was on declining volume, i don't know if it can break the resistance above..
NDX weekly...after a low volume breakdown last week and a big volume pop off support this week, we might be able to find ourselves retesting the triangle breakdown levels...
VIX...i rarely look at it...but when doing some analysis, i realized that we might be at a crucial point here. Depending on how the resistance lines are drawn, we might actually be at very strong resistance now. On the line chart, we hit resistance at the close...At this point, i would not be surprised to see VIX fall back down....actually, i kind of expect it...
XLF...this chart looks very neutral but as support from the moving averages has held up, i actually favor a breakout over a breakdown...
XLF weekly...this channel we have is beautiful..all the way down to the failure on its test this week on very heavy volume. With confirmation, we can get very bearish here but a retest of the channel does not seem out of question...
RKH...the leader when looking at the financial sector has been the regional banks. Very remarkable how well WFC and BAC have held up through all this weakness in LEH, AIG, and WM...a breakout was made today...but i want more confirmation before buying this. But on the flipside, i can't see myself getting bearish here or financials in general until the 20+50MAs are broken here...Its looking strong...
UUP...dollar had its first fall in a very long time...Euro did well despite the lack of news..just speculation of a possible rate cut next week...volume was very weak and as we closed right on support, i am skeptical on the possibility of this downmove to continue into next week...
USD weekly...Bearish candle was made today as it tried to break resistance...confirmation next week would give us a better picture on all this...but as the chart looks overbought on the short term, a pullback would make much sense...
FXE...like we said...the euro did very well...gapped up and closed at its highs after a very horrendous week...but as it was on low volume with good resistance from the 8ema above, i would be patient before thinking this rally could last
FXE weekly...super bullish candle to close out the week make for a very nice weekly candle here...it just so happened to be off good support as well...any rallies here should be short and fail nonetheless, but from this chart, we might actually get a nice little bounce, helping commodities yet again....the big volume here is a good indicator that this support level might just hold...
XME...this was definitely where the easy money was made recently...technically beautiful here...but as we are now closing in on resistance, friday was not a time to buy, but more a time to sell or hold...watch the resistance level...if we get a breakout of it, buy buy buy!...the dollar and euro will be the big indicators here...
UGA...the strongest of all commodities lately...Ike might have been the reason for the shot up this week...but it might have also been people thinking that the dollar was oversold...either way, we ran up on fairly weak volume and are now at good resistance...its possible to trade sideways here or just to fall down again...either way, with such huge moves in the refiners lately, i would not be so bullish anymore...
Analysis: A slew of charts today as we analyzed the entire market...i am going crazy here just trying to make sense of everything...the past week made lots of technical sense and i hope that going forward, it will be the same...but as we are again at resistance, i am playing it safe here...It definitely feels like a buy the dips (early in the week) and sell the rips (next week??)...if so, the easy money in shorting the market might come as early as tomorrow...With much news ahead and the dumbasses at the FED running the gov't, i am very uncertain about what will happen this week. Good news and bad policy might just pop up the markets, killing all shorts. So i suggest playing very small positions if technicals confirm, but overall, it would be best to stay sidelined most of the week...
My Gut Says: LEH will get sold..most likely to a suiter like BAC...FED will keep rates the same, bringing up the dollar and dropping the Euro and Commodities...Banks and financials will shoot up and Tech will also rally...Fakeout moves might occur in some commodities like oil and gas, but in the end, it would be better to look for good shorting opportunities as that is most likely the next move...
Ideal Portfolio:
Before Close
- take profits on huge positions
Before Open
- a very small position going long gas or other commodities (take 100% profits if it opens up huge)
- 90% cash...
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