My Performance: I held assets tight and was concidering selling off my sole long position today but liking the action late in the day, decided to hold. I was also tempted to a new short but wisely decided not to. Overall, little loss but off of the day's lows...
SPX...very nice candle with huge huge volume today...a nice 2x bottom with a slight headfake might be in stored...but watch for confirmation...like almost all the charts i saw today, confirmation on either the down or up is yet to be seen, so stay neutral...the price we closed at will be important tomorrow...
NDX...loving how it came off support today to give the best 2x bottom support seen today...again, like spx, a pullback was expected today, so its best to wait for confirmation as volume alone doesn't show that its a reversal...
XLF...beautiful bullish candle on strong volume today....the bears weren't able to confirm yesterday's breakdown, but financials are still not a great buy yet...very neutral at this price...
RKH...regional banks were very strong today, especially BAC...big drop early but was able to close at its highs making an engulfing pattern...Now its at resistance again...wait to see confirmation before diving long here...The volume is beautiful as it was surprisingly bigger than yesterday
UUP...the dollar held off support today to close very strong..but with such weak volume and weakening oscialltors, i suspect that today's move was bullshit despite the FED decision...
CRB...commodities made a late day push up today to end the day as some of leaders...i totally didn't expect this was the FED didn't cut rates and the dollar rallied...its another one of those times where fundamentals aren't making sense and one of the parties involved is just headfaking...for the short term though, CRB looks to be the one able to produce a rally while the dollar will fall...
Advance / Decline...A very bullish day when looking at candles and sectors...but these numbers tell a different story...who should we trust?
Analysis: Big up day today...but like many ppl expected, today was supposed to be up...historically today makes sense...tomorrow will not be so easy...charts were able to have nice bounce off support but confirmation is needed...i preached it so many times today because it really is the theme going forward from these prices...i remain neutral...
Gut Says: tomorrow the dollar will fall, commodities will rise, and AIG and MS will come out with good news to boost financials as well as every other sector...
Ideal Portfolio:
before close
- stay neutral
before open
- neutral with 100% cash
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