9/21 - Weekly Market Analysis

SPX weekly...bearish chart...puts everything into better perspective as to how little the bailouts have done...this even includes friday's huge move...



NDX weekly...nice candle to finish near highs, but still ended the week lower on increasing volume...the move up this week might have just been a retest of the triangle breakdown.


IWM weekly...If the recession is over, go bullish here...as for me, i don't think this resistance will get broken anytime soon...


XLF weekly...history repeats itself right? thats the basis of technical analysis...and what better case for me to be bearish on financials than pointing out the past...


USD weekly...the dollar is coming off a good bottoming out and reversal...still bullish looking despite the huge headlines about the dollar falling (in turn causing gold to rise)...


Futures..this was printed at about 5:45pm p.s.t. on 9/21/08....pointing to a sharply lower open on monday...all going to my bearish plan so far...


Analysis: I've been debating whether i've been rationally bearish heading into next week or am i just being stubborn and playing the market based on pure emotions....Being unsure, i have been examining the charts, and the more charts i analyze, the more confident i am of my bearish position. Weekly and daily charts show that we have hit strong resistance and that even with these bailout headlines, the charts have still remained bearish. one question i would like to ask is "why were the index ETF volumes so much lower than the real index volumes on friday?". My hypothesis is that much of the buying on friday was done by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) and not by institutional or real buyers...this explains why the volumes of indexes and their etf's had a big discrepency. I do not recall a time when the 2 volumes were so different. Anyway...for the coming week, my position remains bearish...

Gut Says: markets will crash and burn this week as congress and paulson struggles to pass the $700billion solution plan. without the plan, the market will fall to last week's lows....then maybe in the end of the week, when things feel very bearish, congress feels that their hands are tied and frantically passes the plan, which gives a shortterm boost to the market....