QQQQ...broke its channel support today and looks like we are headed lower..maybe even much lower. Watch QQQQ carefully as the market is following it closely...
XLF is inching towards the rectangle resistance line...with the weakness in SPX, i have a feeling we will most likley fail to break than breakout. Its important to note that XLF's rally has almost no affect on the market at all...probably means that this rally doesn't have much legs...
UUP...a pullback would be healthy but so far, it would be better to get bullish on dollar than bearish. in the longrun though, we have to beleive that the dollar will go much higher...just slowly most likely...
DBC...commodities index (looks very similar to USO chart of late)...shows that we can still fall more even despite falling hard these past couple of days. But the late intraday strength today and 2 white candles does make me feel that we might get a quick pullback on this before falling more. I am watching for a good entry to short commodities...
Technical Analysis: Overall, things are stil quite sideways looking. A bearish feel has come over the market ever since traders came back from labor day. The weakness in QQQQ despite a strengthening dollar and weakening oil, is very bearish to me. I suggest looking for shorts on any rallies but not chase as many stocks have already been oversold. I think that the market will most likely fall lower before rallying past resistance. XLF looks good if we continue to rally, and shorting commodities doesn't seem to be a trend that will end soon.
Projected Moves for tomorrow and friday:
SPX will fall
QQQQ will fall
XLF will rally to resistance and close well below the resistance
Dollar will have a relief rally
Commodities will rally to scare shorts
Rearview Mirror Wisdom (how you should have made a fortune today):
1. short steel, coal, and agriculture yesterday at the close despite a huge fall already yesterday
2. disregarded oil and just sold short weak big tech such as RIMM and BIDU
3. shorted any stocks that rallied huge last week on light volume (agriculture)
4. sold off any longs you might be holding early in the morning
5. shorted solars knowing that as oil weakens, the low volume rally in solars must fail
6. shorted oil drillers, etc as demand and price for oil fall...
Strength Sectors:
refiners
homebuilders
airlines
financials (watch GS's strength)
Weakest Sectors:
tech
pharmaceuticals (ilmn, mygn)
casinos (wynn, penn, lvs)
china (sina, sohu)
exchanges
mining and materials (nue, aa)
agriculture (ipi, agu)
solar (wfr)
oil related
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