My Performance: Another hideous day as i went against my predictions and plans once again and liquidated all my commodity calls early today, just 30 minutes before the huge rally in commodities. Yup...i'm pissed...
SPX...doji day today at possible support. I like these levels to hold and SPX to give a slight rally as traders look way too bearish...
NDX...i think its a good time to take a stab at big tech thats holding support such as AAPL and GOOG. As good support held today, i think a long trade here is very very risky but has good risk / reward
XLF...20 + 50 ma hold up today and i expect them to hold into atleast the end of this week. I just think its bullish how XLF hasn't been able to continue its selloff from yesterday's LEH troubles...
RKH...regional banks such as BAC and WFC held on quite strong today despite horrible movement in WM today. I find this bullish as well as its ability to make a bullish candle right at support today...
UUP...very much a bullish chart...but with light volume, its possible that this rally is running out of steam. yet again, i am thinking contrarian...(actually..technically, its forming an unconfirmed 2x top in the 30" chart)
XME...loved how the channel support gave a nice rally in commodities today especially mining and KOL...from today's action, i do like a rally back up to the channel resistance. yesterday could have been capitulation as everyone who wanted to sell off these stocks already did yesterday and now we can get a low volume relief rally...good risk / reward. Also...many charts have had confirmed 2x bottoms or forming 3x bottoms in many of the commodity names.
DBC...a support i haven't noticed be4 is holding now...these gap windows sometimes are good supports so lets see if it hold tomorrow. As these are so oversold, i can't help but feel that it just might. But remember, i am very bearish on commodities, just slightly bullish short term on the risk / reward.
WTIC...oil..this i believe to be better at judging supports than uso...but we don't have volume...either way, look at the price we are at now and how strong this price has been as support in the past...unlikely to breakthrough in my opinion...watch this as it will be crucial tomorrow...
Analysis: I like a short term relief rally in tech and commodites starting today and continuing tomorrow. I felt like a value trader as i drew on these charts...technically everything is very bad so as an investor, i wouldn't touch any of these sectors for a bounce, but as a swing to day trader, these support levels are giving very good risk / reward. and its not catching a falling knife anymore as they did show a possible bottom today. Maybe i will look like a complete fool tomorrow trying to predict bottoms, but for now, i feel good about my prediction. Just remember to keep these counter trend positions very small and on a tight leash...
Ideal Portfolio:
before close
- take most profits from commodity longs
for tomorrow (net short)
- large position shorting market
- small position long coal, materials, or ag
- very small position long tech or banks
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