Monday, September 22, 2008

9/22 - Market Analysis

In the News:

- oil makes biggest one day dollar rise ever!
- dollar drops...biggest 1 day drop since 2001
- gold spikes
- GS and MS are now bank holding companies...more fed control and more free money to these favored equities...

Technical Highlights:

- very low volume
- huge fall that erased all of friday's gains
- financials led the fall even though they are banned from short selling...(proof that short sellers didn't cause the fall...the real reason was a lack of buyers...short sellers add liquidity and give relief rallies...watch the short squeeze done to oil today...idiots blaming short sellers should not be allowed on CNBC)

SPX...huge fall...engulfing candle that closed at support...i am bullish now. sidetrading here we come!



NDX...same kind of chart as SPX...again i don't see support breaking...more sidetrade here...


XLF...in between support and resistance as it fell hard on small volume...hard to beleive that it can break support now..


RKH...real weak area today...but as it falls back to the breakout area, i really have confidence that this level can hold as support...atleast for the remainder of the week


UUP...big, huge fall was the reason for so much of the news today...on huge volume as this chart looks possible of completely breaking down


USO...huge rally lately on dollar strength...can it keep going as oscillators look bullish? i would be watching the big resistance overhead...gonna take more than a short cover to break this level...


CRB...heard that all the commodities shot up today...its near good resistance...risk/ reward favors the bears...


A/D...this shows that we had a real selloff today...this means that tomorrow might drop some more..but enough to break supports, i dunno...


Analysis: STOP TRADING OPTIONS! unless u are a spreader or a seller of options, this is the absolute worst time to be trading options...beautiful charts out there for tomorrow but as i hate the IV and got burned on them today, i am staying away and i suggest every option trader do the same...as the VIX continues to rise as shorts are forced to buy puts because of the ban on short selling and as IV continues to make new 52 week highs in many if not most of the stocks, all option buyers are doing is gambling...the risk is horrible now...not only is time decay going to kill u but as volatility continues to slowly get sucked out, unless your equities move huge, you will end the day with a losing position...so my position for the coming week is...stay sidelined as the market will probably trade sideways on low volume which should suck volatility out of options and hopefully return back to good levels in a few weeks...

My Portfolio:

closed positions as of EOD (all losers today because of IV drain)

short MER (-4.92)
short EEM (-6.25%)
short ENER (+0.22%...sold at about -3%)

open positions (lost huge here today...i see these rebounding back)

short NEM (+6.16%)
long ABK (-9.3%)

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