Monday, September 29, 2008

9/28 - Weekly Market Analysis

SPX weekly
- major support broken
- still in a downtrend
- no reason to go long yet...


NDX weekly
- major support broken
- weak support holding at close
- can go much lower here as it lags other indexes


XLF weekly
- at downtrend line still
- still similar in pattern to last 2 bear flags
- more likely to fall than breakout


USO weekly
- more of a bounce seems possible
- major support below held and will be very crucial in future
- target cannot be higher than the 61.8% retracement as of now


Analysis: The longer term weekly technicals here seem to suggest that this bailout that is waiting to be approved by congress will ultimately fail...and that the dollar will weaken in the short run giving commodities a nice bounce. But as europe bailed out a huge belgium bank this weekend and will probably be forced to lower interest rates and do more gov't intervention soon to bailout its own economy, the dollar might find itself strengthening relative to the euro and other currencies...

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