My Performance: was fun seeing the morning with 100% cash...but later on i chased and bought something long which basically ended my account at a loss...bad trading yet again...
SPX...march lows breached as we hit new 52 week lows on a heavy freefall that began in the last hour of the trading day...tread carefully if u are a bull...don't jump in early...tomorrow will give better clues to either buy or sell...
SPX monthly...i only use this chart because its the shortest timeframe i could have used to find support...crazy!...yup...thats just how low we fell...overall, no good supports around...
NDX...broke the support level i've been watching for about a week now but march lows are still alive...not a reason to buy...but reasons to think that a freefall is not yet imminent...
XLF...financials definitely the big leading loser today...the news around this sector were horrendous and the move down today reflected it...the morning intraday rally gave optimism to traders (including me) but as it failed and led the market lower, breaking the very important support line, it became a free fall of worry, fear, and continued selling...
RKH...this again outperformed XLF...but it definitely was not safe from the selling...huge decline here as it now is sitting on the infamous 20ma...holding is great for bulls and breaking below would mean bye bye financials...
UUP...dollar is weakening for 2nd straight day...talks of a fed rate cut tomorrow coupled with the superweakness in the economy drove the dollar down huge at the open but within a few minutes was able to push up higher...but as it closed below the trendline, i think it can fall much lower...going long a commodity seemed like a smart move if a rate cut were to happen but as it was a trade based on news, i decided not to take the risk, especially not now...
USO..like all the commodity stock charts today, oil was very weak...GLD, SLV, and $COPPER rose on the dollar weakness but any stocks connected to these commodities were still getting slaughtered...definitely a sign that today was ruled by the sellers, not buyers...
Advance / Decline...all sellers...no buyers...crazy!...will 95% of the population be wrong by selling their positions today?
Analysis: Huge day today...and fun to watch...nothing looks bullish and technically things looks very bearish...the doom and gloom feel of the markets was quite evident in the charts as well as on CNBC...i wasn't around for the 9/11 drop, but i bet today doesn't feel much different than that day...the lack of buyers was shown especially in the last hour of trading as it was a pure freefall of stocks, especially financials...The contrarian in me bought a small position long today but looking back, i would expect no smart trader to be calling a bottom just yet...The possibility of these levels holding are slim but possible...a fed rate cut will not bring in the buyers and neither will AIG announcements of capital raising...what needs to happen is surprise outperformance in GS and great news with AIG...anything short of that and i won't expect a big rally tomorrow...keep in mind one thing...right now is exactly what ppl have been waiting for...for the first time since this whole fiasco began, EVERY sector is down...its definitely the beginning of the end in my opinion...
Gut Says: useless rate cut tomorrow, dollar drops, commodity stocks still drop (because of lack of buyers), GS will report bad results as i bet they got screwed over with the collapse of oil and commodity prices lately as i am very sure that they were highly invested in that...AIG news whether bad or good will affect the market more than anything else though, so watch it closely....
Ideal Portfolio: (purely neutral as news dominate the markets now)
before close
- 100% cash
before open
- 100% cash
No comments:
Post a Comment