9/9 - Market Analysis

Major Headline: LEH was the big headline as it lost nearly 1/2 its value due to worries that it might not be able to sell off parts of its assets. It also said it might pre-announce earnings as early as tonight and traders are of course expecting the worst from them, including speculation that they might go bankrupt.

My Performance: I'm mad. today was horrible. dollar strength and commodity weakness killed my portfolio. I should have known better than to get in early on countertrend rallies...also...i should have just trusted my own analysis, more specifically, last friday's analysis.


SPX...biggest drop in a long time coupled with strong volume makes this chart look very bearish.



NDX...the sector took a huge hit yet again but it was not the weakest of the bunch. Still no signs of supports holding nonetheless...


Financials...the weakest of them all today...all because of LEH speculation. It feels a lot like BSC right before it got saved by the dumbass gov't...support busted easily today...



RKH...this sector mirrors XLF quite nicely but shows that banks are quite stronger than the financials overall. Might this sector be able to hold support?


UUP...dollar is strong as hell...no good reason to go countertrend on the dollar yet


FXE....euro again lost all strength late in the day. Its so weak, its crazy...dollar bulls should love this chart


XME...commodities might get a nice relief rally off this support area. I wonder if the huge volume means capitulation...hmm...(we have a very similar chart occuring in KOL as well)


USO....as a holder of commodity calls, i am unhappy to say that USO broke good support and has a few points left to fall before it hits another potential support. And if it breaks that one, USO will probably just keep on falling...



Analysis: Intraday weakness was amazing...the market just fell and fell and fell...What happened to all the late bulls from yesterday? Everything moved so fast that there wasn't even a chance to sell longs and to load up on puts. With such big moves lately, i wonder if tomorrow will give a pause day. Many things are oversold but oversold just means very weak. Bounces will occur and when they do, they will be strong. Therefore, i would say that its important to take partial profits at the end of huge trading sessions like today. Things have been technically easy to read lately, i'd have to say...

Bias: 80% bearish

My Gut Says: dollar will fall someday, commodities will rally back to channel resistance once again, and tech will get an opportunity to scare away shorts...only problem is...its hard to say when. this week looks very likely as i feel that ppl are just way too bearish on commodities...

Ideal Portfolio for Tomorrow: (net short)

before close -
take all profits from commodity shorts
take majority profits from financial shorts

before open -
a. very small, commodity long
b. large low volatility market short
c. mid-size worst of breed financial short