- AIG is bailed out by FED with a huge $85bn loan in return for 80% of AIG shares (socialism is alive and thriving!)
- SEC's creation of new regulations for short sellers
- gold surged with its biggest one day dollar gain in history. it rallied like crazy as the dollar fell and ppl worry about the state of the economy
- GS drops as much as 30% in intraday trading
Key Technicals:
- failure to hold the confirmed 10" 2x bottom in spy and dia is bearish...
- closing at lows on a failure to break resistance is also bearish.
- commodities unable to hold intraday reversal gains.
- huge volume as stocks fell in the last hour overshadowing the mediocre volume in the intraday rally
- SPX and XLF unable to get any sort of rally despite a huge bailout of the supposed biggest problem of the current market
- the engulfing bullish patterns of yesterday failed to followthrough with confirmation
My Performance: not bad...came away decent and able to stay with my trading plan...
SPX...bearish breakdown of all supports...needs a huge push up tomorrow to bring back in the technical bulls because right now, its badly damaged
NDX...like SPX, it cut right through support...no support left unless tomorrow turns today into a fakeout move
IWM...used to show that support is still alive in some charts but with such strong selling on big volume, its hard to see these levels holding
MDY...this is a big support for MDY..a break and it will look very bearish
XLF...unable to hold its breakout yesterday...what else does the fed have to do??? haha
RKH...banks did just as poorly as every other sector as a key MA was broken today but some good supports are still left. lets see if it can hold up...
UUP...dollar fell as economic worries continue...but on weak volume and with strong support underneath, it's nearterm pullback might have just ended today at the close
FXE...euro had a nice bounce but nothing to make ppl bullish yet...we do have a nice target though if it does decide to move higher tomorrow
GLD...the only real thing to move higher today (with silver)...made headlines today as ppl jumped in as a safe way to play the bearishness of the market...watch the strong resistance here...
CRB...commodity futures jumped off support today like oil and gld...but with bad closes by commodity stocks, i dunno how much ppl really belief this mini push up...
VIX....again, i don't care much for this...but because so many ppl look at it, i might as well analyze it...overall, its at levels where VIX usually breaks down but as it is still making bullish candles, we can't quite say that its looking the same as the prior 2 spikes of VIX that eventuall broke down fast....
Advance / Decline... remember yesterday when i said something had to give, either the bullish engulfing candles or this chart?...well turns out this chart revealed the truth yesterday...today it shows that today really was a total selloff of the markets...the numbers are astounding...
Analysis: Technicians should feel very bearish of this market...look at the charts and u can see why...with all nearterm supports broken, the market should just collapse down to unthinkable levels...so why not just go 100% on puts? why not sell short everything and be done with it? well...its because news are still ruling the market...the damn FED, dirty little Bushy, and Hammerin' Hank won't allow this market to just freefall...they've already had to go back on their word and bailout AIG...next they will probably try to cut rates despite voting unanimously not to cut rates...so enjoy the freefall but only til the gov't decides to intervene with another "brilliant" socialist plan for the market...can you possibly believe that Paulson had the nerve just 2 days ago to say that it didn't plan to save LEH and won't save AIG because they don't take the usage of taxpayer's money lightly...bullshit...today i read in an article somewhere that the huge fall today despite a bailout was because of the perception that American gov't cannot afford to keep bailing out these companies so instead of ppl thinking that these banks will fail, now we put ourselves in a position where traders question the strength of the gov't balance sheet...haha...
Ideal Portfolio: (net bearish)
before close
- open a small short position in a commodity stock
- take 90-100% profit in gold revenues
before open
- medium sized position shorting any index of choice
- small commodity short
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